OPEC+ raises output, risking oversupply in 2026

[oil pumps on sunset]
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Following an online meeting on Sunday, eight members of the OPEC+ alliance said they will add 137,000 barrels per day in October, partially reversing voluntary curbs imposed earlier this year. The coalition, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and major producers like Russia, had been widely expected to keep supply unchanged until recently.

The announcement comes as oil benchmarks remain under pressure. Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) closed last week near $65 a barrel, weighed down by speculation about fresh OPEC+ barrels and a surprise rise in U.S. inventories. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) are down more than 10% so far in 2025.

For several years the group has leaned on output cuts to stabilize prices, but it is now pivoting toward regaining market share. Sunday’s adjustment begins to unwind about 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary reductions that had been scheduled to last through the end of 2026. OPEC+ emphasized that the pace of restoring those barrels will depend on how market conditions evolve.

This move follows an earlier agreement to completely phase out a separate 2.2 million-barrel reduction from 2023, which is being reversed in stages from April through September. Collective restrictions of roughly 2 million barrels a day remain in effect.

While the new production has helped prevent prices from spiking amid geopolitical turbulence, it has also stoked concerns among traders about a potential glut. So far, those worries haven’t fully materialized in stockpile data thanks to solid summer demand and only limited inventory growth in developed economies. Actual output has also trailed pledged levels recently, as some members throttled back to offset prior overproduction.

Still, analysts caution that combined increases from OPEC+ and non-member producers could tip the balance into surplus by the first half of 2026.

The eight nations behind the voluntary curbs -- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman -- plan to reconvene on October 5 to set policy for November.

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