Is a recession on the horizon or not? SA analysts weigh in

[USD dollar banknote is torn with recession wording on red background for United of America risk of great economic depression crisis concept.]
Dilok Klaisataporn

U.S. financial markets remain perched near record levels as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming rate decision.

A key question looming over Wall Street now is whether the economy is edging toward a potential downturn or if the rally still has room to extend. The Fed’s policy stance—and the tone of its messaging—will likely shape how traders interpret the balance between opportunity and risk in the months ahead.

Before the announcement, Seeking Alpha analysts weigh in on the likelihood of a recession and what it could mean for markets:

SA analyst Lawrence Fuller said: “Despite weak consumer confidence, robust August retail sales signal continued economic expansion, with consumers driving growth… I see no recession on the horizon at this stage,” in Consumers Keep Spending, No Recession On The Horizon [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823645-consumers-keep-spending-no-recession-on-horizon].

SA analyst TMC Research outlined: “Some economists are predicting that US recession risk is rising, and a downturn could arrive before the year is out, but the supporting data to date is still thin,” in Introducing TMC Research's Recession Probability Indicator [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823323-introducing-tmc-researchs-recession-probability-indicator].

SA analyst Bret Jensen stated: “Equities continue to hit all-time highs despite a faltering jobs market and a struggling housing sector…However, there are increasing signs that the likelihood of recession in 2026 is rising on myriad fronts,” in 5 Clear Signs The U.S. Is Likely Heading Into Recession Next Year [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823290-5-clear-signs-us-likely-heading-into-recession-next-year].

SA analyst Ironman at Political Calculations noted: “At long last, the Federal Reserve is on the verge of resuming rate cuts. Looking forward, we anticipate the Fed's expected action to cut interest rates will finally cause the probability of recession to resume dropping to lower levels,” in U.S. Recession Probability As Fed Finally Set To Resume Rate Cuts [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4823254-us-recession-probability-fed-finally-set-resume-rate-cuts].

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