Can the Jordan brand save Nike?

Investing.com -- Nike’s comeback may depend on a 40 year old franchise, the Jordan brand.

Analysts at Bernstein say that the rise and fall of the Jordan line explains much of Nike’s strong run from 2021 to 2023 and its current slowdown.

The brand’s sales have dropped by roughly $2 billion in two years, shrinking from about 15% of Nike’s revenue to around 11%. Excess inventory and constant promotions have diluted the brand’s excitement and pushed customers toward rivals.

The key question now is whether Jordan can be reignited, and whether that revival can carry Nike (NYSE:NKE) through its wider reset.

Bernstein says the brand is far from dead, with consumer survey data, social-media tracking and retailer checks indicate Jordan still has strong global appeal.

The problem lies in product pipeline and execution, not customer interest. With the right launches, Jordan could fuel a fresh, multi-year “brand heat cycle” beginning in 2026, lifting Nike’s growth and margins from FY27 onwards.

Under a bullish scenario, Nike could roll out a strong Jordan product line in summer 2026. That could kick off improved sales of lifestyle and apparel products across Nike’s business, pushing revenue growth to high-single digits and margins above 13%.

Bernstein estimates earnings per share could reach $4.80 by FY29, implying a stock value of about $120, or roughly 56% upside from current levels.

But if new Jordan launches fall flat, and the brand grows only slowly, Nike’s total growth is likely to stay muted. In that case, earnings would likely rise only modestly, and the stock could fall toward $70, a roughly 9% decline.

The analysts conclude: Jordan is essential to Nike’s recovery. The upside may outweigh the downside but it will likely take years, with real momentum only visible by FY27 or later.

For now, Nike’s biggest comeback hope remains tied to a brand that first changed sportswear four decades ago and may need to do it again.

Related articles

Can the Jordan brand save Nike?

Clients buying into summer rally, bracing for later pullback, says BofA's Hartnett

Tesla: Hype Aside, How Much Is the EV Giant Really Worth Now?

View Comments