Marvell rises after Oppenheimer gets bullish on company after investor meetings

[Marvell Technology office building in Santa Clara, California, USA]
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Shares of Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MRVL]) rose about 3% premarket on Friday after analysts at Oppenheimer highlighted key takeaways after hosting investor meetings this week with the company's CFO Willem Meintjes and Senior Vice President of Investor Relations Ashish Saran.

The firm raised the price target on Marvell's stock to $115 from $95 and reiterated its Outperform rating on the shares.

"Tone was notably confident as mgmt. outlined gen-gen custom AI ASIC project continuity and sustained networking outperformance. All segments are expected to grow 10%+ in CY26 as CSP[cloud service providers]/hyperscalers deploy AI infrastructure and cyclical verticals inflect," said analysts led by Rick Schafer.

The analysts noted that Marvell's deep/broad data center, or DC, AI platform (optics, ASIC, switching, storage) taps a $95B DC Total Addressable Market, or TAM. More than half ($55B) custom ($40B XPU, $15B XPU-attach).

Marvell has secured over 20 custom project wins to-date, split 6 XPU, 14+ XPU attach, the analysts added. The analysts said that no revenue ‘air pocket’ in custom AI ASIC next year as they believe Trainium3 (T3) remains on track for early 2026 followed by T4.

The analysts see 2026 custom ASIC up with forecast CSP capex, at least 20% ( more than $2B), led by existing customers/projects (including T3). Initial Microsoft Maia contribution likely in late 2026, becoming a significant driver in 2027.

Marvell's management sees $20B DC connectivity TAM. The company is a dominant supplier of PAM4 DSP (400G/800G/1.6T) for scale-out. Overall, Marvell's $3B+ optics business boasts more than 50% Compound Annual Growth Rate, or CAGR, since the IPHI acquisition, which closed in 2021.

The analysts look for Marvell to use Teralynx low latency technology to win in the emerging scale up switching opportunity which could eventually rival scale out switch TAM.

"Confusion surrounding continuity at top customer AWS [Amazon Web Services] has pressured the stock for much of CY25. We believe the MRVLAWS relationship remains very much intact and see shares re-rating higher as mgmt. executes and investor confidence grows. MRVL's diverse, structural growth led by share/content gains in DC AI," said Schafer and his team.

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