Tesla target raised to $500 at RBC on Optimus opportunity

Investing.com -- RBC Capital Markets lifted its Tesla price target to $500 from $325 per share in a note to clients on Friday after incorporating the potential of the company’s Optimus humanoid robot into its valuation.

“We estimate TSLA could capture 5% of our projected ~$9T humanoid robot market by 2050,” RBC analysts wrote.

Following an investor tour of Tesla’s Berlin Gigafactory, RBC said the company “aims to integrate Optimus across three key verticals: manufacturing, hospitality, and consumer.”

Management reportedly emphasized that Optimus would not be involved in military or police applications and highlighted “its unified platform and ability to leverage FSD as core competitive advantages.”

RBC believes humanoid robots represent a vast market opportunity, estimating an approximately $9 trillion global TAM by 2050, with “households (33%), agriculture (21%), manufacturing & logistics (12%), and retail and commerce (11%)” as the largest areas for adoption.

China is said to represent 61% of the TAM, followed by the RoW at 24%, the EU at 8%, and the US at 7%.

For Tesla specifically, RBC assumes Optimus will focus on the consumer (household), manufacturing and logistics, and hospitality segments, leading to a Tesla-specific TAM of “$4.3T, representing nearly half of the original TAM.”

The note stated that of Tesla’s humanoid revenue, “22% is from the US, 14% from the EU, 58% from China, and 6% from RoW.”

“Applying these assumptions, Tesla could generate $404B in humanoid-related revenue by 2050,” RBC remarked.

The humanoid segment “accounts for 36% of its total valuation,” with “Robotaxi contributing another 37%, followed by FSD at 11%, Cars at 8%, and Megapacks at 8%.”

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