Sunrun raised at BMO on potential for capital return in 2026

[Solar pannels]
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Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RUN]) +3.8% in Wednesday's trading, poised to close at a two-and-a-half-year high, as BMO Capital upgraded shares to Market Perform from Underperform and nearly doubling its price target to $19 from $10, saying the solar company could reach a level of cash generation in 2026 that would allow it to consider share buybacks or start paying a dividend.

BMO analyst Ameet Thakkar said his previous negative view of Sunrun (NASDAQ:RUN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RUN]) was never solely predicated on risk of Section 48E investment tax credits being eliminated or lower customer growth for residential solar in the current interest rate environment; rather, it was skepticism that the company's cash generation performance would resonate with investors, and more importantly cash generation resulting in any capital return.

Sunrun (RUN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RUN]) "appears to be in a better position and [more] willing than we expected to commence either repurchase of shares or offer a dividend in 2H 2026," Thakkar wrote, estimating the company will generate $444 million in FY 2026, resulting in a secured debt-to-cash generation ratio below 2x, although he added the upgrade could prove premature if customer payment rates weaken or credit spreads widen.

MORE ON SUNRUN

* After Strong Q2 Beat Sunrun Rises, But Surge May Be Short-Lived [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4811038-after-strong-q2-beat-sunrun-rises-but-surge-may-be-short-lived]
* Sunrun: Securitization And Subscriber Value May Not Be Enough [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4801149-sunrun-securitizations-and-subscriber-value-may-not-be-enough]
* Sunrun Q2 2025 Earnings Call Presentation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4809791-sunrun-inc-2025-q2-results-earnings-call-presentation]