Morgan Stanley Says It’s Time To Take Crypto Profits — Here’s What Our Data Shows

Is now the time to take profits? | Source: Image created with Gemini

. Key Takeaways

Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo says Bitcoin is in the “fall season” of its four-year cycle, historically the time to harvest gains before a potential downturn. However, CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri found inconsistent correlations between U.S. money supply and Bitcoin prices. CCN’s Bitcoin chart hints at a possible long-term correction.

Morgan Stanley says it’s time to harvest crypto gains, but new data analysis from CCN suggests the market’s rhythm may not be so simple.

Morgan Stanley Outlook

In a recent Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said Bitcoin has entered the “fall season” of its four-year market cycle.

This stage is typically when investors cash out before a potential crypto winter, the analysts said.

“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said.

Galindo noted that historical patterns show a “three-up, one-down” rhythm in Bitcoin’s price cycles, implying the current rally could soon give way to consolidation or decline.

What CCN’s Data Shows

CCN analyst Valdrin Tahiri sees a more nuanced picture emerging from the data.

A chart comparing U.S. money supply with Bitcoin’s price (in red) raises questions about whether the crypto cycle has truly been liquidity-driven.

“During the 2022–2023 bear market, both the Bitcoin price and money supply fell together,” Tahiri said.Custom 2-Week Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

In the 2018–2019 downturn, Bitcoin plunged despite an expanding money supply. The 2020 bull market, however, matched perfectly with a surge in liquidity.

More recently, the 2023 rally unfolded even as money supply growth barely moved, and Bitcoin’s pace of gains slowed in 2024 despite a renewed pickup in liquidity.

“There’s a correlation,” Tahiri said, “but not a consistent one.”

Charts Hint at a Bearish Turn

Tahiri’s technical outlook is also cautious.

He noted that Bitcoin’s monthly chart flashed its first major warning in October, forming a bearish candlestick and breaking down from an ascending wedge pattern, a move that historically signals the end of an uptrend.

“Bitcoin has completed a five-wave advance since early 2023,” Tahiri said. “That wedge was the fifth and final wave, suggesting the cycle’s upward leg is complete.”

Story Continues

If a long-term correction unfolds, Tahiri expects Bitcoin could revisit the Fibonacci and horizontal support zone between $57,600 and $70,600.BTC/USDT Monthly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

Momentum indicators echo the same sentiment, with both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) showing bearish divergences.

“The MACD could form a bearish cross this month,” Tahiri said. “That would confirm the wedge breakdown and the start of a longer-term decline.”

Morgan Stanley’s call to “take profits” aligns with growing caution across markets, but CCN’s analysis suggests the crypto cycle may be evolving beyond simple liquidity trends.

Whether this “fall season” turns into a full-blown crypto winter could hinge on how macro conditions and market psychology interact in the months ahead.

The post Morgan Stanley Says It’s Time To Take Crypto Profits — Here’s What Our Data Shows appeared first on ccn.com.

View Comments