Do Tencent Music's (TME) Strong Earnings Signal Durable Growth or Temporary Streaming Momentum?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported third-quarter 2025 earnings, with revenue reaching CNY 8.46 billion and net income of CNY 2.15 billion, both up from the prior year. The company expanded its global reach by partnering with international labels and elevated its live music presence through multiple sold-out concerts and industry awards. We'll assess how Tencent Music Entertainment Group's strong growth in online music subscriptions informs its broader investment narrative and future growth outlook.

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Tencent Music Entertainment Group Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Tencent Music Entertainment Group shareholder today, you need to believe in the enduring growth of China's online music ecosystem and the company’s ability to convert rising subscriptions into sustainable profits. The company’s strong third-quarter results are encouraging for the most important short-term catalyst, continued online music revenue growth, but do not materially reduce the biggest risk, which remains ongoing regulatory scrutiny in China’s internet sector and its impact on new business initiatives.

A particularly relevant development alongside these results is Tencent Music’s new global data partnership with Luminate, which for the first time brings Chinese music streaming data to Billboard's Global Charts. This move may support future international growth opportunities, but the regulatory environment for digital media and pending approvals for acquisitions like Ximalaya remain unresolved, keeping certain risks in focus.

By contrast, investors should be aware that unpredictable shifts in regulatory policy for live streaming and digital content may suddenly weigh on earnings stability and...

Read the full narrative on Tencent Music Entertainment Group (it's free!)

Tencent Music Entertainment Group's narrative projects CN¥45.8 billion revenue and CN¥13.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 14.8% yearly revenue growth and a CN¥3.5 billion earnings increase from CN¥10.2 billion.

Uncover how Tencent Music Entertainment Group's forecasts yield a $28.34 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesTME Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Simply Wall St Community members produced five fair value estimates for Tencent Music, ranging from CN¥14.06 up to CN¥17,578.19. While many in the community anticipate online revenue expansion, persistent regulatory pressures in China could still reshape the company’s financial path, take a look at these differing perspectives and consider which aligns best with your view.

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Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Tencent Music Entertainment Group - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!

Build Your Own Tencent Music Entertainment Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your Tencent Music Entertainment Group research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards that could impact your investment decision. Our free Tencent Music Entertainment Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tencent Music Entertainment Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include TME.

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