Freight shipment declines extend to 30 months, Cass says

Freight volumes fell faster in July while expenditures stepped slightly higher on a year-over-year comparison. Choppiness in demand created by an uncertain trade landscape continues to overhang the industry, according to a Thursday report from Cass Information Systems.

Shipments on the multimodal index slid 1.8% from June (down 1.7% seasonally adjusted) and were down 6.9% y/y. This was the largest y/y decline in the dataset since January. Volumes have fallen sequentially in three straight months.

“Tariffs hit shipments harder in the most recent data, as paybacks began from demand pull-forwards earlier in the year, though goods prices are still relatively steady,” the report said.

The index is expected to be down 8% y/y in August, assuming normal season trends. However, the report said a recent rise in imports may mute some of the expected decline.

July 2025
y/y
2-year
m/m
m/m (SA)ShipmentsExpendituresTL Linehaul Index

Cass’ freight expenditures index, which measures total freight spend including fuel, declined 1.5% from June (0.6% lower seasonally adjusted) but was up 0.4% y/y. (Retail diesel fuel prices were up 5% sequentially but 1% lower y/y.)

The expenditures dataset was positive (y/y) for a fourth straight month in July following over two years of declines. On a two-year-stacked comparison, the declines narrowed again in the month to 5.8%.

Netting the decline in shipments from the increase in expenditures shows actual freight rates were up nearly 8% y/y in July. A mix shift to truckload from less-than-truckload again drove the change to the inferred rate index, the report said.SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates remain largely flat on a year-over-year comparison.To learn more about SONAR, click here.

Cass’ TL linehaul index, which tracks rates excluding fuel and accessorial surcharges, dipped 0.6% sequentially but was 2.4% higher y/y. The dataset has been up on a y/y comparison in every month this year. This was the largest y/y gain since September 2022.

The index is “on track for a small increase in 2025.”

“As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious,” the report said. “But the silver lining of lower [commercial] vehicle production and lost manufacturing jobs is that tighter capacity will likely drive freight back to the for-hire market next year.”

Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $36 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.SONAR: Outbound Tender Reject Index for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for truck capacity, the Outbound Tender Reject Index shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers.Current tender rejections are outperforming prior-year levels but still not signaling a recovery.

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