Trump-Putin summit: What to expect

[Negotiation of USA and Russia. Statesman or politicians.]
vchal/iStock via Getty Images

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Alaska on Friday, with the American president hoping to broker a peace agreement in the first top-level U.S. meeting with Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Trump said the meeting would be "like a chess game," saying there's a 25% chance that the summit won't be successful. He said the talks were aimed at "setting the table" for a follow-up meeting that would include Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but warned of "severe consequences" if Putin does not agree to stop the war.

Meanwhile, Putin on Thursday said the Trump administration was making "energetic and sincere efforts to stop the hostilities and reach agreements that are of interest to all parties involved in this conflict."

Ukraine and European allies had been worried that the meeting would yield unfavorable terms for Kyiv, which led to a last-ditch conference call with Trump on Wednesday.

On the call, Trump affirmed he wouldn't negotiate territorial issues with Putin as that should be done directly by Zelenskyy. Trump also expressed willingness to join security guarantees for Ukraine as long as the effort is not part of NATO.

Apart from Ukraine, Trump and Putin are also expected to discuss boosting bilateral trade and economic cooperation. "I would like to note that this cooperation has huge, and unfortunately hitherto untapped, potential," Putin's aide Yuri Ushakov said.

"A breakthrough toward peace would likely boost European and Russian equities, lower energy prices, and cool defense stocks," SA analyst APAC Investment News noted. "If negotiations fail, heightened tensions [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813661-russia-usa-talks-in-alaska-could-have-big-impact-on-markets-worldwide] could drive up defense and energy stocks, depress global markets, and increase volatility, especially if the U.S. re-engages or withdraws support for Ukraine."

RELATED ANALYSES

* Russia-USA Talks In Alaska Could Have A Big Impact On Markets Worldwide [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813661-russia-usa-talks-in-alaska-could-have-big-impact-on-markets-worldwide]
* When Leaders Meet: Trump & Putin, Reagan & Gorbachev, And The Markets Of 1985 [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813079-when-leaders-meet-trump-and-putin-reagan-and-gorbachev-and-the-markets-of-1985]
* Commodities: Oil In Wait-And-See Mode Ahead Of Trump Vs. Putin [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813008-commodities-oil-wait-and-see-mode-trump-putin]