Diplomatic Theater Leaves Crude Markets Unmoved

The Trump-Putin and subsequent Trump-Zelenskiy meetings provided ample talking points for the markets at large; however, the lack of sanctioning threats has been mostly a bearish factor for crude prices. The price drops of late have been relatively tiny, with ICE Brent still trading around $66 per barrel, yet the upside from here seems to be minimal, barring a sudden escalation.

Beijing Bags Barrels as Indian Refiners Mull Their Russia Options

- According to media reports, Chinese refineries have purchased at least 15 cargoes for October and November delivery as India’s state-owned refineries limit their imports of Russian crude amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
- Russia’s medium sour Urals grade, accounting for more than half of its oil exports, tends to flow mostly to India because of shorter logistics from the Black Sea and Baltic Sea ports of the country.
- Chinese refiners have imported only two cargoes of Urals in June, only one in July, however as India’s demand started to wane, they’ve scooped up at least 10 tankers for October, quadrupling their intake compared to the 2025 average of 40,000 b/d.
- Soaring Chinese imports of Russian oil are also a reaction to higher Middle Eastern prices, after Saudi Aramco hiked its September-loading formula prices to a $3.20 per barrel premium over Oman/Dubai.

Market Movers
- UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) has transferred its stakes in four contiguous blocks in the central part of the Gulf of Mexico to BP (NYSE:BP), indicating that the high-impact Penguin prospect might’ve turned out to be dry.
- Algeria’s state oil company Sonatrach has struck oil in Libya, confirming prospective resources at in the onshore Block 065 it operates, just south of the Wafa field that produces 40,000 b/d of crude.
- US utility company Black Hills (NYSE:BLK) agreed to purchase its industry peer NorthWestern Energy for $3.6 billion in an all-stock deal, marking another important step in America’s power M&A landscape.
- Italy’s energy major ENI (BIT:ENI) agreed to sell a 49.99% stake in its carbon capture and storage projects to BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) subsidiary GIP, mostly covering upstream assets in the North Sea.

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

The Trump-Putin and subsequent Trump-Zelenskiy meetings provided ample talking points for the markets at large, however the lack of sanctioning threats has been mostly a bearish factor for crude prices. The price drops of late have been relatively tiny, with ICE Brent still trading around $66 per barrel, yet the upside from here seems to be minimal, barring a sudden escalation.

Story Continues

US Keeps Pressure on India’s Russian Imports. Writing an op-ed in the Financial Times, Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro said India’s purchases of Russian oil were funding Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, just as a planned visit from US trade negotiators to New Delhi next week was called off.
China Floods the Market with Products. Chinese exports of refined products rose to a 13-month high of 5.34 million tonnes last month, marking a 7% increase year-on-year, driven primarily by diesel flows as Europe continued to buy long-haul volumes, whilst domestic demand in China wanes.

Iran Halts Power Exports to Iraq. Iran halted electricity exports to neighbouring Iraq, citing a surge in domestic consumption as the country’s power demand jumped to 77 GW, whilst Tehran had to ratchet up its own power imports from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to prevent blackouts.

China’s LNG Import Slide Continues. With China’s LNG imports trending 20% compared to 2024 readings, July arrivals to the world’s once-largest LNG importer totalled only 35.51 million tonnes LNG, marking the ninth straight month of annual declines as JKM prices remain above $11/MMbtu.
Indonesia Eyes Modular Refinery Bonanza. Indonesia’s government plans to build at least 17 modular refineries across the country, with the country’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara keen to sign an $8 billion deal with US engineering firm KBR (NYSE:KBR) despite profitability concerns.

Norway’s LNG Troubles Continue. The Hammerfest LNG terminal in Norway’s Arctic was forced to shut its production of LNG this weekend due to an overheating electric transformer, less than two weeks after operator Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) restarted operations after a three-month maintenance.

Brazil’s Regulator Halts Output at Key FPSO. Brazil’s largest independent oil producer Prio (BVMF:PRIO3) admitted that the country’s local regulator had ordered a full production halt at its 100,000 b/d Peregrino FPSO, citing the need for improvements in risk management documentation.
Glencore Doubles Down on Argentinian Copper. Global mining giant Glencore (LON:GLEN) has submitted applications to Argentina’s authorities for RIGI tax incentives, vowing to develop the $4 billion Agua Rica and $9.5 billion El Pachon copper mines in the country, creating 2,500 new jobs.

Ukraine Strikes Halt Russian Pipeline. Ukraine’s military confirmed that its drones struck an oil pumping station in Russia’s Tambov region feeding the Druzhba pipeline that supplies some 210,000 b/d of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, halting pipeline transportation in the conduit completely.

ADNOC’s Purchase of Santos Delayed Again. Australia’s upstream giant Santos (ASX:STO) announced that the ADNOC-led consortium, comprising Abu Dhabi’s holding company ADQ and PE firm Carlyle, will not be able to finalize its $18.7 billion bid for the producer for at least a month.
Trump Promises to Slap Tariffs on Semiconductors. US President Donald Trump vowed to introduce tariffs on imports of steel and semiconductor chips over the coming weeks, adding that rates would be lower at the start to allow companies to relocate their manufacturing to the United States.

US Miner Calls Off Giant Coking Coal Deal. US mining firm Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) terminated its planned purchase of Anglo American’s Australian coking coal assets, failing to adjust the $3.8 billion purchase price after a fire at the Moranbah North mine, paving the way for arbitration.

Russia’s Dormant LNG Giant Awakens. Four LNG carriers linked to Novatek’s (MCX:NVTK) 19.8 mtpa Arctic LNG 2 project are headed towards Asia along the Northern Sea Route, putting an end to months of little activity as both the ships and the project remain under stringent US sanctions.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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