Market Monitor Trends and Breadth August 22 BMO - Short‑Term Breadth Slips Again, Long‑Term Support Still Intact

[ChartMill Market Monitor Report Trends and Breadth]
_(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)_

DAILY MARKET TREND ANALYSIS – AUGUST 21, 2025 (AFTER MARKET CLOSE)

US index ETFs had a quiet day ahead of Powell's speech in Jackson Hole today.

SHORT TERM TREND

[ChartMill US Indices Performance daily]
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/SPY]

* Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
* Next Support at $640 - $620
* Next Resistance at $647
* Volume: Below Average (50)
* Pattern: Down Day - Inside Day Candle

QQQ (NASDAQ-100 ETF) [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/QQQ]

* Short-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)
* Next Support at $550 - $540
* Next Resistance at $580
* Volume: At Average (50)
* Pattern: Down Day - Inside Day Candle

IWM (RUSSELL 2000 ETF) [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/IWM]

* Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
* Next Support at $225
* Next Resistance at $230 - $245
* Volume: Well Below Average (50)
* Pattern: Up Day

LONG TERM TREND

[ChartMill US Indices Performance weekly]
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/SPY]

* Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (NASDAQ-100 ETF) [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/QQQ]

* Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (RUSSELL 2000 ETF) [https://www.chartmill.com/stock/quote/IWM]

* Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

DAILY MARKET BREADTH ANALYSIS – AUGUST 21, 2025 (AFTER MARKET CLOSE)

Market breadth continues to erode as short-term participation metrics decline for the third day in a row. While long-term structural indicators remain stable, short-term deterioration suggests caution heading into the final sessions of the week.
[ChartMill US Indices Performance weekly]
Market breadth metrics weakened again on Thursday, marking the third consecutive session of soft participation.

While the damage remains moderate under the surface, the short-term trend has clearly rolled over after the 8/18 bounce. Notably, the percentage of stocks above key short-term moving averages (20 and 50-day) continues to decline, and weekly breadth is firmly negative.

DAILY PARTICIPATION:

Advancers slipped again to 40.1%, versus 57.0% decliners.

Strong gainers (≥4%) increased slightly to 3.2%, but remain modest overall.

On the downside, only 1.0% of stocks dropped ≥4%, easing from 2.4% on Wednesday and 7.5% Tuesday, so while the red breadth dominates, intensity has subsided.

SHORT-TERM TREND MEASURES:

*
% above 20-DMA fell again to 54.4%, down from 57.6%, and well below 61% from earlier in the week.

*
% above 50-DMA declined to 61.1% from 62.3% and 65% on Monday.

Conclusion: Participation above short-term trend lines is clearly trending down.

INTERMEDIATE/LONG-TERM MEASURES:

*
% above 100-DMA (70.2%) and 200-DMA (56.3%) are unchanged.

*
New Highs (1.6%) and New Lows (1.0%) remain low and stable.

These suggest the longer-term trend remains structurally intact, with no signs of panic.

BREADTH ACROSS TIME FRAMES:

*
Weekly breadth continues to deteriorate: 37.5% of stocks are up on the week, 61.2% are down, confirming weakness.

*
Monthly breadth is now almost flat: 50.4% up vs 49.1% down.

*
3-month picture remains positive: 72.5% of stocks are up over the past 3 months, with 15.9% up ≥25% (vs 5.2% down ≥25%)—leadership intact.

CONTEXT AND TREND CONTINUATION

Thursday’s data confirmed the continued weakening of short-term breadth flagged earlier this week. The bounce on 8/18 (advancers 52.2%, strong weekly/monthly participation) is now clearly in the rearview mirror, as participation fades again.

However, the absence of any spike in severe decliners or new lows suggests this is a soft fade, not a hard selloff.

While short-term traders should take note of the weakening participation and limited breakouts, medium- and long-term investors can take some comfort in the stability of the 100- and 200-day trends and healthy 3-month momentum.

CONCLUSION

The market is in a shallow correction or consolidation phase. If short-term metrics (20/50-DMA and weekly advance/decline) continue to weaken into next week, the intermediate trend may begin to deteriorate as well.

For now, the breadth trend rating is: 3 — Neutral (with a clear short-term negative bias).
[ChartMill Market Breadth Trend Result ]
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KRISTOFF - ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor News, August 22 BMO [https://www.chartmill.com/news/GILD/Chartmill-33496-Market-Monitor-News-August-22-BMO-Coty-Crumbles-Powell-Looms-Wall-Street-Cautious-Amid-Mixed-Signals]