Air Canada strike will hit earnings, but not for long, say analysts

Analysts are assessing the damage of the brief strike at Air Canada. (Credit: John Mahoney/National Post)

Air Canada flights partially resumed Tuesday afternoon following a multi-day strike that left thousands of customers grounded, but the true impact to the company’s stock might still be up in the air.

The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), the union representing Air Canada’s flight attendants, said the company had failed to address key issues, such as low wages and unpaid work, and the two parties had been in a months’ long labour dispute over the renegotiation of contracts for months.

About 10,000 flight attendants went on strike Saturday morning, while Air Canada estimated about 500,000 customers’ flights were cancelled.

While a tentative deal was reached on Tuesday, ensuring ground pay for workers and allowing about 53 per cent of flights to take off, Canada’s flag carrier said it could take up to seven to 10 days before operations fully resume as normal.

The company’s stock was trading at just above $19 on Thursday at 1 p.m.

Here’s what analysts are saying about the strike’s repercussions to Air Canada’s stock.

‘Short-term reputational hit:’ National Bank

National Bank of Canada stock analyst Cameron Doerksen said he expected Air Canada to be affected by customers booking flights through other airlines both in the lead up to and during the strike, but there could a “short-term reputational hit” to the brand as well.

“The airline may launch more seat sales as a result, which could hurt yields and revenue,” Doerksen wrote in a note. “We see these impacts as short-lived for Air Canada, but they could temper financial results in the next quarter or two.”

National Bank also anticipates structural contract changes for flight attendants at other airlines could come in the wake of the strike.

Doerksen said he is maintaining his outperform rating and $26 target on Air Canada shares, which still trade at a “sizable discount” to its peers — for now.

“We expect to refine our estimates once there is more clarity on the pace of operational recovery,” he said, adding Air Canada may provide an update on the estimated financial impact from the disruption in the coming weeks.

Impact will likely be felt in Q3: CIBC

The impact from the labour disruption will likely be felt most keenly in the third quarter of the year, with some lingering effect in the fourth quarter as well, analysts from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) wrote in a note.

“While we recognize that AC’s brand has taken a hit during these last few days as customers were forced to cancel or reschedule their travel plans, we have not assumed any longtail impact on AC’s demand outlook or its ability to achieve (its) 2028 targets,” they said.

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The CIBC analysts are maintaining the company’s “outperformer” rating and $24 price target, but cut its 2025 EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) by an estimated $250 million.

Labour relationships key to credit ratings: Morningstar DBRS

The Air Canada labour dispute likely caused a “considerable financial loss” for the airline, while affecting other sectors such as tourism and those that depend on air cargo, wrote Rohit Kumar, assistant vice-president, corporate ratings, at Morningstar DBRS, in a note.

Air Canada pulls forecast amid flight attendants' strike Air Canada flight attendants go on strike, grounding hundreds of planes

Kumar said labour relationships are an important consideration when it comes to credit ratings. “An airline’s favourable relationship with employees and unions ensures operational reliability as well as financial stability.”

He pointed to staffing risks, such as scarce skilled labour, uncompetitive wages or labour conflicts, that could result in a material financial or operational impact and influence a company’s credit rating.

Air Canada is not rated by Morningstar DBRS.

Dent in cash flow may affect spare liquidity: BMO

Bank of Montreal stock analyst Fadi Chamoun said in a note to clients he expects the strike will slash Air Canada’s third-quarter EBITDA by an estimated $400 million, though “other commercial costs” could move this estimate slightly higher. He reduced Air Canada’s 12-month price target from $29 to $28.

That said, Chamoun said in the note that Air Canada’s strong moat and market position means it can weather the strike’s impact, along with a “modest” drop in future bookings. He also gave the company an outperform rating.

“We don’t expect the medium-to-long-term financial framework to be materially impacted, albeit the cash flow dent may impact spare liquidity, which we assumed would have gone towards share repurchases,” Charmoun said.

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