The World Trade Organization (WTO) is projecting a significant rebound in global trade for 2021, revising its earlier forecasts upward. The organization cites the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and the ongoing economic recovery as key factors driving this positive outlook.
According to the WTO’s latest estimates, global merchandise trade volume is expected to increase by 8.0% in 2021, followed by a 4.0% rise in 2022. This represents a substantial improvement compared to the WTO’s previous forecast of 7.2% growth for 2021.
“The rapid recovery in trade is a welcome development, but it is important to remember that this is still an uneven recovery,” said a WTO spokesperson. “Some regions and sectors are recovering more quickly than others, and the pandemic continues to pose a significant threat to the global economy.”
Key Factors Influencing the Forecast
- Easing of Pandemic Restrictions: As vaccination campaigns progress and infection rates decline in many countries, governments are gradually lifting restrictions on economic activity, allowing businesses to reopen and trade to resume.
- Economic Recovery: The global economy is showing signs of recovery, with increased consumer spending and business investment driving demand for goods and services.
- Government Stimulus Measures: Many governments have implemented fiscal stimulus packages to support their economies, which has helped to boost demand and trade.
Risks and Challenges
Despite the positive outlook, the WTO also warns of several risks and challenges that could dampen trade growth.
- Uneven Vaccine Distribution: The unequal distribution of vaccines across countries could lead to a two-track recovery, with some regions lagging behind.
- Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade tensions between major economies could disrupt global supply chains and undermine trade growth.
- New Variants: The emergence of new variants of the virus could lead to renewed restrictions and slow down the recovery.
The WTO emphasizes the importance of international cooperation to address these challenges and ensure a sustainable and inclusive recovery for all.
