Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures stall with Trump-Zelenskiy talks, Fed policy in focus

US stock futures leaned lower on Monday as investors eyed risks around a high-stakes US-Ukraine meeting, kicking off a week dominated by a Federal Reserve speech that could define the outlook for interest rates.

Futures on the S&P 500 (ES=F) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) both nudged around 0.1% lower, coming off a second straight winning week for the major gauges. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also shed 0.1%.

Geopolitics are front of mind as Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European allies head for talks with President Trump in Washington DC, with the Ukranian president facing US pressure to accept a peace deal that favors Russia. Wall Street is watching for more details on what Trump agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at their Alaska summit.

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But markets are also looking ahead to the main event this week, Jerome Powell's comments at Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. His speech — likely to be Powell's last as Fed chair — will be closely followed for clues to the path of monetary policy, after inflation and retail data prompted Wall Street to temper rate-cut hopes last week. The annual get-together of central bankers often brings signals of key shifts in Fed thinking, and its policymakers are facing a dilemma over what action to take.

The release of minutes from the Fed's July meeting on Wednesday will set the stage for Jackson Hole in a week light on economic data.

Meanwhile, second quarter earnings season is winding down, with Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Blink Charging (BLNK) reports on Monday's docket. With most of the reports in, the results have been mostly positive. Highly anticipated earnings from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), and Lowe's (LOW) are due later in the week, likely to provide insights into consumer spendingLIVE1 update

Today at 9:26 AM UTC

Brian Sozzi

Goldman team likely to stay in Trump's crosshairs

President Trump has recently offered a few choice words on the work from Goldman Sachs' economics team, led by long-time economist Jan Hatzius.

The team is unlikely to garner some praise from Trump today. What Hatzius and his team served up in a new note this morning....

"After the recent downward revisions to payrolls, our estimate of trend job growth is now clearly below even that low bar at 30k per month. And while the picture could change again for better or worse, future revisions to job growth are more likely to be negative because the birth-death model is likely a bit too generous, changes in trend payroll growth can initially be partially misattributed to changes in seasonal factors, revisions to the raw payrolls data tended to be negative in past slowdowns, data from ADP raise doubts about officially reported payroll growth in healthcare, and the household survey is now overstating immigration and employment gains.

The outlook for job growth has dimmed too. Like the slowdown in activity growth this year, the slowdown in job growth appears to have arisen from more than just the direct effects of trade and immigration policy changes. We are particularly worried that “catch-up hiring” in a few industries now appears over and job growth outside those industries has fallen to around zero. And while job openings remain at a decent level, they started to decline again earlier this year."

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