UBS raises gold forecasts through 2026 as 2025 rally tops all asset classes

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UBS has raised its gold (XAUUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAUUSD:CUR]) price forecasts, lifting the end-March 2026 target to $3,600/oz from $3,500/oz and the end-June 2026 target to $3,700/oz (also from $3,500/oz).

The firm also introduced a new forecast of $3,700/oz for end-September 2026, while maintaining its end-2025 target at $3,500/oz.

Bullion has reclaimed the top spot in asset class performance for 2025, with a 28% year-to-date gain—outpacing major equity and bond indices, G10 currencies, and even Bitcoin.

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"Despite the dialing back of some trade frictions, we see US macro-related risks, questions over Fed independence, worries about fiscal sustainability, and geopolitics underpinning de-dollarization trends and more central bank buying," UBS said in a note.

"In our view, these factors will drive gold prices even higher," analysts said, adding that the key risk for gold is if the Fed is forced to raise rates.

The Fed Chair Powell is expected [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4814025-its-do-or-die-for-powell-the-jackson-hole-speech-preview] to stay hawkish at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and markets are currently expecting three cuts in 2025.

The investment bank maintains an "attractive view" on gold and stays long the metal in its global asset allocation.

Spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAUUSD:CUR]) was up +0.15% to $3,337.43 an ounce at the time of writing.

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