Gold ticks lower ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech

[stack of shiny gold bars 3d illustration]
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Gold futures edged lower as the dollar rose Thursday ahead of Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole gathering, which is expected to provide clues on the path for U.S. interest rates.

Gold pared some of the previous session's gains as President Trump's call for Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign helped boost safe-haven demand, adding to concerns over the Fed's independence from political interference.

The Fed has kept rates unchanged since December, but traders see a 71% chance of a 25-basis point cut by September, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

"If [Powell] signals a rate decrease in September, I don't think much will happen because the market is already expecting that. If he says we may decrease rates again in October, November or December, I think the dollar could weaken and gold could push higher," Marex analyst Edward Meir said in a note.

Fitch Solutions' research company BMI raised its 2025 gold price forecast [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4487735-fitchs-bmi-raises-2025-gold-price-forecast-to-3250oz-maintains-slightly-bullish-outlook] by $150 to $3,250/oz, expecting prices to remain elevated in the coming weeks as the market braces for a U.S. Fed rate cut in September.

"Even then, we believe the upside for gold following the rate cut will be limited with most of it already priced in," BMI wrote.

Front-month Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAUUSD:CUR]) for August delivery ended -0.2% to $3,336.90/oz, the metal's third loss in four days, but front-month Comex August silver (XAGUSD:CUR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XAGUSD:CUR]) finished +0.8% to $38.027/oz.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:GLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLD]), (NYSEARCA:GDX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDX]), (GDXJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GDXJ]), (NYSEARCA:IAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IAU]), (NYSEARCA:NUGT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NUGT]), (PHYS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PHYS]), (GLDM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLDM]), (AAAU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAAU]), (SGOL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SGOL]), (RING [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RING]), (BAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BAR]), (OUNZ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/OUNZ]), (SLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLV]), (PSLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PSLV]), (SIVR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SIVR]), (SIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SIL]), (SILJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SILJ])

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