India poised to increase Russian energy imports, defying U.S. demands

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The Trump administration's steep tariffs on India have not forced the country to stop buying Russian oil, as Reuters reported Thursday that Indian imports of Russian oil are expected to rise next month [https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-russian-oil-imports-set-rise-september-defiance-us-2025-08-28/].

Indian refiners plan to increase their purchases of Russian oil in September by 10%-20% compared to August levels, or by an additional 150K-300K bbl/day, according to Reuters, which cited trading sources involved in the Indian market.

India reportedly imported 1.5M bbl/day of oil from Russia during the first 20 days of August, unchanged from July and slightly below the average of 1.6M bbl/day in the January-June period; the volumes equal 1.5% of global supply, making India the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude, which covers ~40% of India's oil needs.

India likely will remain a major buyer of Russian oil despite 50% U.S. tariffs on Indian imports that started Wednesday, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.

Although ship tracking data indicates Russian exports to India have eased by 15%‑20% since late June, the lack of an official ban or reduction of purchases reflects "the political tightrope India is trying to walk," Dhar wrote. "India is trying to make some concessions to U.S. demands, while also trying to keep its relationship with Russia intact."

India's oil refineries likely will largely continue to purchase Russian oil to maximize profits as it trades at a slight discount to Brent oil, Dhar said.

Crude oil futures settled higher Thursday, with the market watching increased drone strikes in the Russia-Ukraine war just weeks after hopes were raised for peace talks.

German Chancellor Merz told reporters that a meeting between Ukraine's President Zelenskiy and Russia's President Putin "won't happen."

Meanwhile, Citi maintained its average Brent price forecast at $66/bbl for Q3 and$63/bbl in Q4 as "oversupply should start to exert greater impact on the oil supply-demand balance into year end."

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for October delivery finished +0.7% to $64.60/bbl, front-month Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) for October delivery closed +0.8% to $68.62/bbl, and front-month Nymex natural gas for October - the new front month - ended +2% to $2.944/MMBtu, its third straight daily gain.

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