Market Minute 9-15-25- "Fed Week" Hopes Propel Stocks Higher

Equities are trying to kick the week off with a bounce, as is crude oil. Gold and silver are pulling back a bit along with the dollar, while Treasuries are mostly flat.

It’s “Fed Week” – with Federal Reserve officials set to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and discuss policy options. Chairman Jay Powell and company will definitely cut interest rates for the first time in nine months thanks to deteriorating employment data. While it will most likely be a 25-basis point move, there is a (very) small chance we’ll get a 50-bp cut.

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Either way, Wall Street will be paying close attention to the Fed’s forward guidance. Rate futures markets are currently pricing in a decent likelihood of three or four more 25-bp cuts through mid-2026. If the Fed pushes back against that narrative, it could harm equities. After all, expectations of easier money are one reason the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) has rallied 12% year-to-date.

SPX, TSLA (YTD % Change)chart

Data by YCharts

Meanwhile, China appears to be playing hardball with US chipmakers, ruling that Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) violated Chinese antitrust laws and announcing a separate investigation that impacts chips made by Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN). The moves dinged NVDA and TXN shares during US-China negotiations that are underway in Spain. Those talks could lead to a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month.

See also:SRV: A High-Yielding Energy Fund for this Post-Powell Market

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares surged more than 7% on Friday, and they’re climbing again today. One reason: CEO Elon Musk spent $1 billion buying 2.57 million TSLA shares in the open market, his first such purchase since February 2020. The stock has been performing poorly because some buyers shunned its cars for political reasons and others avoided them due to a lack of model updates. But after being down 45% on the year in April, TSLA is now trading back in the black.

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