Crude oil adds to losses as OPEC+ said to consider bigger production increase

[Data analyzing in commodities energy market: the charts and quotes on display. US WTI crude oil price analysis. Stunning price drop for the last 20 years.]
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images

Crude oil futures fell Tuesday, extending the previous session's sharp losses, as reports pointed to potential OPEC+ plans for a larger production hike next month, while oil exports resumed from Iraq's Kurdistan region via Turkey.

Reuters reported OPEC+ likely will consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 bbl/day for November - which would triple the 137,000 bbl/day increase the group agreed for October - at its meeting next Sunday, and Bloomberg reported OPEC+ was considering accelerating its increases by 500,000 bbl/day.

The apparent OPEC+ strategy of seeking more market share "could significantly squeeze margins for high-cost U.S. shale producers, potentially forcing them to scale back the record-level output they've maintained," StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note.

U.S. crude production rose to a fresh monthly high of 13.64 million bbl/day in July, up by 109,000 bbl/day from the previous record in June, the Energy Information Administration reported.

Adding to the bearish sentiment were concerns over an imminent U.S. government shutdown, which some analysts said raised demand concerns.

Major Wall Street banks have kept their oil price forecasts for the year largely stable, according to a survey compiled by _The Wall Street Journal_, which showed Brent crude is expected to average $63.56/bbl for Q4, and WTI crude is forecast at $60.36/bbl, in line with last month's projections of $63.57/bbl and $60.30/bbl, respectively.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CL1:COM]) for November delivery closed -1.7% to $62.37/bbl, front-month November Brent crude (CO1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CO1:COM]) finished -1.6% to $66.03/bbl, while front-month Nymex November natural gas (NG1:COM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NG1:COM]) ended +1.1% to $3.303/MMBtu.

For the month of September, Nymex and Brent crude fell 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively, while Nymex natural gas closed up 10.2%; for Q3, Nymex and Brent crude dropped 4.2% and 2.3%, respectively, and natural gas slid 4.4%.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USO]), (BNO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BNO]), (NYSEARCA:UCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UCO]), (SCO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SCO]), (USL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USL]), (DBO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DBO]), (DRIP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DRIP]), (GUSH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GUSH]), (USOI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USOI]), (UNG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNG]), (BOIL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BOIL]), (KOLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KOLD]), (UNL [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UNL]), (FCG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FCG]), (NYSEARCA:XLE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLE])

MORE ON CRUDE OIL

* WTI Crude Oil Slips Below $63 As OPEC+ Output Signals And Gaza Talks Weigh On Sentiment [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4827058-wti-crude-oil-slips-below-63-as-opec-plus-output-signals-and-gaza-talks-weigh-on-sentiment]
* Oil Under Pressure Amid Noise Over More OPEC+ Supply Hikes [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826794-oil-under-pressure-noise-over-more-opec-plus-supply-hikes]
* U.S. Oil Retreats After Yet Another Failed Breakout (Technical Analysis) [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826764-us-oil-retreats-after-yet-another-failed-breakout-technical-analysis]