Polymarket $8 Billion Valuation Steams Ahead of Kalshi, But Race for Prediction Market Dominance Is Still Open

Polymarket and Kalshi are closely tied for market share. Credit: Absolute Charm via Pexels.

Key Takeaways

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket. The deal sees Polymarket’s valuation overtake rival Kalshi’s. However, trading volume on two prediction markets remains close.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is investing up to $2 billion in Polymarket, the New York Stock Exchange-owner announced on Tuesday, Oct. 7.

The deal values Polymarket at $8 billion—four times more than prediction market rival Kalshi, which raised $185 million at a $2 billion valuation in June. Nonetheless, the two platforms remain neck-and-neck in terms of trading volume.

NYSE-Owner Backs Polymarket

For Polymarket, a major investment by the world’s leading exchange operators signals a vote of confidence in its decentralized prediction market model.

As part of the deal, ICE will become a global distributor of Polymarket data, which could soon be integrated into feeds used by thousands of financial institutions across the globe.

In the five years since its launch, Polymarket has emerged as a powerful prediction engine.

From elections to sporting events, the platform has proved to be more accurate than traditional surveys of opinion polls, validating the notion that financially incentivized markets generate more reliable crowdsourced predictions.

This concept holds significant promise for ICE customers seeking insight into consumer and investor sentiment. For example, some of the most popular prediction markets relate to interest rates and corporate earnings, where analysts traditionally rely on forecasts from a few experts.

Rival Visions Compete for Dominance

While the ICE deal could establish Polymarket as the go-to source of prediction market data for financial institutions, it isn’t the only player in the game.

The only platform that really rivals Polymarket by trading volume is Kalshi.

With its decentralized design (it runs on Polygon’s blockchain rails) and integrated stablecoin payments, Polymarket is popular globally. However, it remains restricted in the U.S., where it must be authorized as a Designated Contract Market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

In contrast, Kalshi’s centralized model based on fiat dollars aligns more with traditional futures markets, helping it secure a CFTC registration and access to the U.S. market.

With Polymarket preparing to re-enter the U.S. under a newly acquired CFTC license, Kalshi’s regulatory advantage may not last much longer.

Polymarket vs. Kalshi Trading Volume

As things stand, the two platforms account for the vast majority of prediction market trading volume, yet neither has decisively pulled ahead of the other.

Story Continues

In the week to Sept. 29, Kalshi’s market share stood at nearly 67%, versus Polymarket’s 31%. But just a month earlier, the balance was tipped the other way.

As the competition intensifies, platforms are becoming differentiated by their user base and the kind of events they follow.

ICE’s investment in Polymarket reflects its popularity among a global audience, who favor political betting and internationally relevant events.

Meanwhile, Kalshi’s most popular contracts lean American, although the firm is making a concerted effort to attract more crypto-related predictions.

Ultimately, the market for prediction trading has plenty of room for growth, with one study anticipating a 46.8% annual growth rate over the next decade.

With that in mind, the space continues to attract new entries like The Clearing Company, which is pitched as an alternative to both Polymarket and Kalshi.

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