Chart of the Day 10/15/25: The BEST "Gold" Chart You Haven't Seen

Why is gold ripping higher? A lot of charts purport to explain it. But here’s the BEST one in my book...and it’s one you probably haven’t seen.

This MONEYSHOW CHART OF THE DAY shows the 2-year/30-year US Treasury spread. That’s the difference between the yield on the 2-year Treasury Note and the yield on the 30-year Treasury Bond. You can see that the spread has been increasing for several quarters now – moving from negative territory in late-2023 to more than 115 basis points this week.

2-YEAR/30-YEAR TREASURY SPREAD

[chart]

Source: CNBC

So, _WHAT DOES A BOND CHART HAVE TO DO WITH GOLD?_

Well, governments all over the world want to “run it hot” when it comes to the economy. They want to pressure their central banks to keep short-term interest rates low…while they pump out debt-funded fiscal stimulus and ignore long-term inflation risk.

Yields on shorter-term notes and bills are more closely tied to central bank rates. Yields on longer-term notes and bonds are more sensitive to long-term growth and inflation expectations – and government balance sheet health.

Spread widening, then, shows bond investors are losing faith in fiscal discipline. It’s not just a US phenomenon, either. Spreads are widening on a global basis, as this Bloomberg story notes [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-13/the-great-debasement-debate-is-rippling-across-global-markets?fromMostRead=true].

Which brings me back full circle. What asset class are confidence-losing investors moving money into? Both private AND public ones? You guessed it.

GOLD.

If you think governments are going to bite the bullet and get more fiscally responsible, then selling the metal or (GLD) [https://www.barchart.com/quotes/GLD] makes sense. If you think politicians will keep trying to take the easy way out, then you probably want to keep trading the gold bull market I’ve been pounding the table on since H2 2018. I know what camp I’m in!

_THIS ARTICLE CONTAINS SYNDICATED CONTENT. WE HAVE NOT REVIEWED, APPROVED, OR ENDORSED THE CONTENT, AND MAY RECEIVE COMPENSATION FOR PLACEMENT OF THE CONTENT ON THIS SITE. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VIEW THE BARCHART DISCLOSURE POLICY HERE [https://www.barchart.com/terms#disclosure]._