Is Equinox Gold Set for More Gains After Strong Q1 Production Update?

If you’ve been watching Equinox Gold stock, you know it’s had quite the run. It has been more than just a sprint, resembling a marathon lined with impressive milestones. Over the past week alone, shares have climbed by 5.4%, capped by an 18.8% gain this past month. But those numbers barely scratch the surface. Year-to-date, the stock has soared an incredible 131.6%, and over the last three years, it’s up more than 317.4%. If you’re weighing what to do next, you’re not alone; the recent momentum has plenty of investors wondering if there’s more room to run or if it’s time to consider the risks.

Some of this renewed optimism can be traced back to bullish sentiment in the gold sector and shifting market dynamics, which have helped boost many miners. While not every headline moves the needle for Equinox, a broad increase in gold prices and talk of global economic uncertainty have clearly influenced the stock’s trajectory, especially for a name that’s already on investors’ radars.

Of course, when it comes to making a decision—whether to buy, hold, or sell—price history is only half the story. Valuation matters, too. On that front, Equinox Gold currently scores a 2 out of 6 on our valuation scale, meaning it’s considered undervalued in two of the six major checks we use to assess a stock’s worth. But do those numbers tell the whole story?

Next, we’ll dig deep into each valuation approach so you can see how Equinox Gold stacks up across a range of methods. And at the end, I’ll share an even better way to think about stock value that you won’t want to miss.

Equinox Gold scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Equinox Gold Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This effectively calculates what those future dollars are worth in present terms. This approach is particularly valuable for evaluating companies expected to grow or change significantly over time, as it goes beyond current profits to factor in long-term potential.

For Equinox Gold, the DCF model considers current and projected Free Cash Flow (FCF) in dollars. At present, the company’s FCF is negative, coming in at -$98 million. Analysts forecast a significant turnaround, with FCF expected to reach $780 million by 2028. Looking ahead a full decade, projections estimate FCF moderating to around $372 million by 2035, with Simply Wall St extending the estimates beyond analyst consensus. These figures indicate an expected period of growth followed by a gradual decrease, a pattern not uncommon in the resource sector.

Story Continues

The model arrives at an intrinsic value of $16.43 per share. This is just 8.0% above the current market price, meaning the stock is trading narrowly over what the DCF suggests it should be.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Equinox Gold.EQX Discounted Cash Flow as at Oct 2025

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Equinox Gold's valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

Approach 2: Equinox Gold Price vs Sales (P/S) Ratio

For many companies in the mining sector, especially those not consistently profitable year after year, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often the most reliable measure of value. The P/S ratio is favored because it focuses on revenues, which tend to be less volatile and less easily manipulated than earnings. This makes it a strong foundation for comparing companies in resource-driven industries.

Growth prospects and risk profile are crucial factors in determining what a "normal" or "fair" P/S ratio should be. More growth usually commands a higher multiple, while greater risks can drag it down.

Equinox Gold currently trades at a P/S ratio of 5.0x. For context, the industry average sits at 6.3x, and its group of peers is valued at 11.2x. However, these benchmarks can sometimes be misleading, as they do not adjust for company-specific strengths or vulnerabilities.

This is where Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio steps in. The Fair Ratio estimates the P/S multiple that best fits a company's actual profile, factoring in but not limited to earnings growth rates, margins, size, and unique risks that may not be obvious from headline numbers alone. It offers a more tailored assessment compared to just using broad averages.

Right now, Equinox Gold’s Fair Ratio is 4.4x, only a touch below its actual P/S of 5.0x. This tight range suggests the shares are not stretched far above or below where they belong given the company’s fundamentals.

Result: ABOUT RIGHTTSX:EQX PS Ratio as at Oct 2025

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Equinox Gold Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned there is an even better way to understand a company’s value, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a clear, user-driven story that links your perspective on Equinox Gold, explaining why it is set to thrive or face challenges, to your financial forecasts and a personal fair value estimate. Narratives move beyond static numbers by letting you combine your expectations for future revenue, earnings, and margins with context about the business and industry trends. This approach is easy to access on Simply Wall St’s platform, right from the Community page where millions of investors share and review narratives every day.

What makes Narratives especially powerful is how they help you compare your fair value to the current price and easily spot when an opportunity arises, whether to buy, hold, or sell. Unlike traditional analysis, Narratives stay updated automatically when big news hits, such as earnings releases, mine ramp-ups, or new discoveries, so your outlook is always fresh. For example, some users project Equinox Gold’s fair value as high as CA$16.24, driven by optimism around new mine ramp-ups and robust gold demand. Others set it as low as CA$9.47, perhaps highlighting concerns about operational risks or challenging ore grades, showing how your view shapes your investment decisions.

Do you think there's more to the story for Equinox Gold? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!TSX:EQX Community Fair Values as at Oct 2025

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include EQX.TO.

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