China pauses rare earth curbs—brokerage says relief not yet here

[Rare earth minerals and export controls, semiconductor supply chain, US-China trade negotiations, tariff rollback and tech restrictions : American flags placed on a periodic table, rare earth element.]
William_Potter

Breaking Beijing’s stranglehold on rare earths will remain a long-term challenge, with China expected to retain its strategic leverage over these critical minerals, Fitch's _BMI _said in a note on Friday.

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Oct. 30 suspended the export controls introduced on Oct. 9 for one year, following U.S.-China trade talks at the APEC summit. Miners, including MP Materials (MP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MP]), USA Rare Earth (USAR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USAR]), TMC (TMC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TMC]), Critical Metals (CRML [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CRML]), and Energy Fuels (UUUU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UUUU]) gained on Thursday following [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4511062-rare-earth-stocks-rise-following-trumpxi-deal-china-pauses-planned-export-curbs-for-a-year] the deal.

The rare earth market has been on a roller coaster regulatory ride in 2025 thus far, with the October set of sweeping rare earth export restrictions from Mainland China marking a sharp escalation from previously introduced curbs in April 2025.

While a round of negotiations in London in June 2025 brought a temporary détente, resulting in the resumption of rare earth exports from China, a renewed wave of trade frictions [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4504833-chinas-rare-earth-export-controls-sparks-global-pushback-report] rattled the market in early October.

"The much-anticipated de-escalation of trade tensions once again with the US-China deal on October 30 will likely deliver only short-term respite for market players, given Beijing’s commanding position" in the sector, which is poised to remain unrivalled in the short to medium term.

China’s dominance becomes even more acute along the value chain, with the country responsible for about 91% of global magnet rare earth output at the refining stage in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency.

While the US-China deal grants the West access to Mainland China's rare earths supply chain for now, this will depend on political temperature going forward, the brokerage added.

"The country’s entrenched capabilities in both mining and processing fields, well-established technological expertise and comparatively lower production costs will continue to underpin its dominant position," analysts noted.

ETFs: (REMX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REMX]), (LIT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/LIT]), (ILIT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ILIT]), (BATT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BATT]), (URA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/URA]), (NLR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NLR]), (URNM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/URNM])

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