ETFs have generally done worse a year after the 2024 election vs. 2016

[ETF - Exchange Traded Funds, financial advisor.]
Torsten Asmus

Small-caps and mid-caps have struggled the most a year after the 2024 election, compared to larger caps and other ETF across asset classes.

Among the major ETFs, the year following the 2024 election yielded lower returns than a year after 2016, when President Donald Trump won its first presidential term.

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY]) saw 18.5% total return one year after Nov. 4, 2024, vs. 23.3% total return on Nov. 4, 2017. Similarly, the Dow ETF (DIA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/DIA]) saw 13.3% returns a year after the 2024 election, compared to 31.3% a year after the 2016 election. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QQQM]), (QQQ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QQQ]) returned 26.5% a year after the 2024 election, vs. 32.7% a year after 2016.

Small-cap and mid-cap range ETFs, such as the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IJH]), the Midcap 400 Growth (IJK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IJK]), and the Russell 2000 (IWM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWM]) saw larger gaps in performance.

Here is a breakdown of some of the ETFs:

* S&P Midcap 400 (IJH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IJH]) – 3.3% a year after 2024; 22.8% a year after 2016
* Russell 2000 (IWM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IWM]) – 8.7% a year after 2024; 25.4% a year after 2016
* Midcap 400 Growth (IJK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IJK]) – 3.3% a year after 2024; 24.9% a year after 2016
* Smallcap 600 Growth (IJT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IJT]) – 0.5% a year after 2024; 25.7% a year after 2016
* Midcap 400 Value (IJJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IJJ]) – 3% a year after 2024; 19.5% a year after 2016
* Smallcap 600 Value (IJS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IJS]) – 2% a year after 2024; 22.9% a year after 2016

Commodities ETFs including gold (GLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLD]) and silver (SLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLV]), however, have performed enormously better a year after the 2024 election, compared to a year after the 2016 election. The Gold Shares ETF (GLD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GLD]) was up 43% vs. -0.4%; and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SLV]) was up 43.7% vs. -8%, respectively, a year after each election.

Countries that performed better this last presidential election year include Hong Kong (EWH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EWH]), Japan (EWJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EWJ]), Mexico (EWW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EWW]), Spain (EWP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EWP]), Israel (EIS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EIS]), and the UK (EWU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EWU]).

Bespoke Investment Group listed major ETFs and their performances, along with currency ETFs, country ETFs, bond ETFs, commodities ETFs, and other international ETFs:

[ETF performance ]
ETF performance (Bespoke Investment Group)

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