Gold drifts below $4,000 as investors await US jobs data

Gold (GC=F)

Gold prices were mixed against a stronger dollar as markets waited for US private payroll data for clues as to the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

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3,981.20

+20.70

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As of 4:41:14 AM EST. Market Open. Advanced Chart

Gold futures rose 0.9% to $3,995.00 per ounce, while spot gold lost 0.4% to $3,981.70 an ounce, at the time of writing.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at a three-month high of 100.13. A stronger dollar The dollar makes gold more expensive for investors.

"With the dollar making new highs, we're seeing that having a weight on the gold market ... some of this recent strength in dollar and the weight in the gold market comes from the less likelihood of a potential (Fed) rate cut in December," David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, told Reuters.

With the US government undergoing its longest shutdown in history, there are no official statistical figures being released, forcing markets to rely on private economic reports such as the ADP National Employment Report due later today.

Read more: FTSE 100 LIVE: Global stock rout deepens as traders remain concerned about AI bubble

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week and chair Jerome Powell signalled it might be the last reduction in borrowing costs for the year.

Market participants now see a 69% chance of a rate cut in December, down from over 90% prior to Powell's remarks, per CME's FedWatch Tool.

"Gold is losing some froth while still pricing in concerns over Fed independence and the possibility of stagflation as well as underlying geopolitical risk and international tensions. Some of the froth has been blown off in a much-needed correction," Rhona O'Connell, an analyst at StoneX, said in a note.

Non-yielding gold thrives in a low interest rate environment and during times of economic uncertainty.

Oil (BZ=F, CL=F)

Oil prices were muted, losing previous gains against a strengthening dollar amid fears of a market downturn.

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Brent crude futures were flat at $64.05 per barrel at the time of writing, as were the West Texas Intermediate futures, at $60.59 a barrel.

Analysts at ANZ Banking Group said investors have exited the energy sector in order to avoid risk.

Asian stock markets showed a sharp drop, with volatility hitting its highest levels since April, after a sell-off in technology shares on Wall Street drew attention to inflated valuations.

"Crude oil prices are falling as risk sentiment has sharply turned negative, leading to a rise in the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Both of these factors have put pressure on crude oil prices," said IG Market analyst Tony Sycamore.

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Read more: Bank of England braced for tough call on interest rates

Supply-side concerns also weighed on crude prices even as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers (OPEC+), agreed on Sunday to pause increases during the first quarter of 2026.

The pause was "unlikely to offer meaningful support to November and December prices," LSEG analysts said in a note.

Pound (GBPUSD=X, GBPEUR=X)

The pound was making a comeback after dipping to a seven-month low as markets expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold in a finely balanced decision.

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1.3036

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As of 9:50:55 AM GMT. Market Open. GBPUSD=XGBPEUR=X

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The pound was up 0.1% against the greenback, trading at 1.3043, and versus the euro, at €1.1350.

Traders expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to hold interest rates at 4% on Thursday, according to market pricing, which implies a less than one-in-three chance of a quarter-point cut.

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The BoE has already reduced rates five times since last August as it seeks to support faltering growth while bringing inflation back to its 2% target.

In equities, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was muted on Wednesday morning, trading at 9,711 points, as traders remain concerned about a possible AI bubble. For more details on market movements, check our live coverage here.

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