Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina Lead Next Wave of Non-OPEC Oil Production

Oil from offshore Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play will be key sources of cost-competitive non-OPEC oil supply through 2030, Rystad Energy has predicted. Rystad has predicted that global liquids demand will peak in the 2030s at around 107 million barrels per day (bpd), maintain a plateau above 100 million bpd through the 2040s before declining to around 75 million bpd by 2050. According to the Norwegian energy consultancy, non-OPEC+ supply will be key to balancing the global market, with cheap oil from South America helping to offset slower U.S. shale growth. Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for around 5.9 million bpd, or nearly 60%, of new conventional oil currently under development through 2030 (total new capacity). South America will be the main source of this supply growth at 560,000 bpd of crude and condensate, with North America supplying ~480,000 bpd.

Radhika Bansal, VP of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said today’s producing wells are on track to deliver less than half of their current output by 2030, a trend that reinforces the need for sustained investment in both new and mature fields. She noted that undeveloped and discovered assets will continue to play a key role in meeting global supply needs through the mid-2030s. While the market could briefly tip into oversupply, Bansal cautioned that “above-surface risks could trigger delays in project timelines.” She added that South America’s deepwater track record positions it well to provide competitive barrels globally, with continued investment needed as the supply gap is expected to widen after the mid-2030s.

Source: Rystad Energy

Brazil is a leading source of production growth, especially from its prolific offshore ultra-deepwater pre-salt oil fields, which boast low break-even costs. Major investments are being made, with several new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units scheduled to come online in the current year. Brazil's offshore oil production is a major driver of its economy, with production primarily from pre-salt fields like Lula and Búzios, operated mostly by the state-owned company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR). The country has set new production records and continues to increase its output through the development of new platforms and exploration in deepwater fields, though it faces regulatory and infrastructural challenges. The Lula Field is one of Brazil’s most significant offshore projects with estimated reserves of 8.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent(boe); Búzios Field achieved a record 800,000 barrels of oil per day in February 2025, with more platforms being added to increase capacity.

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Guyana's oil production has increased rapidly, surpassing 770,000 barrels per day as of October 2025, primarily from the ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM)-led consortium's projects in the Stabroek Block. This surge was due to the start-up of the Yellowtail development, the fourth floating production vessel (FPSO). Guyana is expected to hit 900,000 bpd once the fourth facility is fully operational, with a long-term goal to eventually produce over one million barrels per day once projects like  Uaru and Whiptail come online in 2026 and 2027. Indeed, Exxon says Guyana could be producing nearly 1.3m barrels daily by 2027, making it one of the most prolific per capita producers in the world.

Meanwhile, Vaca Muerta shale oil production has surged 26% Y/Y to over 447,000 barrels per day, and now accounts for the majority of Argentina's total oil output, according to estimates by Rystad Energy. Vaca Muerta is one of the world's largest unconventional oil reserves, estimated at 16.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Production has been boosted by significant investment, leading to lower lifting costs in main production areas and increased productivity.Positive investor sentiment and a focus on infrastructure development are crucial for future growth, as seen with companies reversing decisions to exit and companies like Norway's Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) returning to the play. Equinor and Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL) acquired a 49% stake in the Bandurria Sur block from Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) in 2020, with the acquisition following its initial entry into the region in 2017 and a subsequent agreement with YPF to develop the Bajo del Toro block.

However, the iconic basin is showing signs of slowing down, particularly in drilling activity due to saturated takeaway capacity. Interestingly, natural gas is now stealing the Vaca Muerta's spotlight, with dry gas production clocking in at 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in the first quarter of 2025, up 16% Y/Y. According to Rystad, Argentina is now “…pursuing a bold, multi-phase national LNG export strategy, meaning Argentina could soon become a pivotal player in global gas supply, significantly reshaping markets and energy geopolitics.”

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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