Crypto’s Big Anchor Buckles as Corporate Treasury Buying Plunges 76%

(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin was supposed to have entered a new era. Wall Street’s embrace, through digital-asset treasuries designed to embed the cryptocurrency into corporate balance sheets, promised stability and growth. Now that institutional anchor is buckling, exposing similar fragilities that have defined earlier market cycles.

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Purchases by publicly traded digital-asset treasuries plunged from 64,000 Bitcoin in July to 12,600 in August, and 15,500 so far in September, according to CryptoQuant. The latter marks a 76% slide from the early-summer frenzy. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 6% in the past week along with Ether in a selloff marked by sudden liquidations. Shares in some treasuries that once raised money via so-called PIPE deals have traded down as much as 97% below issue.

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Overall, digital-asset treasuries raised more than $44 billion this year, marketed as steady buyers that would transform Bitcoin and other coins from speculative tokens into financial infrastructure. The idea was simple: corporate treasuries, pensions, and listed firms would hold Bitcoin as a balance-sheet asset, creating a demand floor.

Instead that floor is creaking. Regulators are probing unusual trading in digital-asset treasury shares, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

“There has also been limited visibility into the acquisition prices of the underlying cryptocurrencies and the true share count, as many PIPE deals include warrants whose volatility and dilution effects are far less transparent,” said Markus Thielen, who heads 10x Research.

Shares of some treasury firms that once traded at rich premiums have seen those multiples collapse, with their market value now close to the Bitcoin they hold. That premium, known as the market-cap-to-NAV multiple, or mNAV, measures how far a company’s stock price sits above or below the value of its Bitcoin reserves.

With diminished capital to serve as a countercyclical buying force, their pullback has reduced the footprint of a key buyer. The result is a dispiriting feedback loop: institutional support both signaled and underpinned demand, and its reduced heft undermines both.

A two-speed market has emerged. On one side, derivative markets show stress: demand for longer-dated futures has collapsed, with $275 million of Bitcoin longs liquidations in the last 24 hours highlighting risk aversion. On the other, inflows into retail-friendly products continue at pace.

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The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF drew $2.5 billion in September, up from $707 million the previous month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ETF investors continue to chase exposure even as corporate buyers ease back.

“It is more likely that crypto is weak due to the weakness in the DATs, not because it causes any selling pressure, but because it removes a major buyer from the market,” said Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca.

Morten Christensen watched the Bitcoin euphoria crest in August. He didn’t see the usual signs of a cycle top — no parabolic blow-off, no sudden cascade of forced liquidations — but the air felt thin. When the cryptocurrency topped $123,000, the veteran trader, wary of the “50%-in-a-month” volatility that has historically defined the asset, advised friends and family to sell.

“All the treasury companies is a huge top signal in my books,” said Christensen, who runs AirdropAlert.com.

--With assistance from Isabelle Lee and Sidhartha Shukla.

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