The market looks calm on the surface, but paddling like a duck underneath – RBC Capital Markets’ Amy Wu Silverman

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Despite global uncertainties including government shutdowns and tariff announcements, the volatility index (VIX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VIX]) has remained surprisingly muted compared to earlier highs this year, said Amy Wu Silverman, head of Derivatives Strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The strategist shared this insight during an interview with CNBC, noting that the market’s apparent calmness may be deceptive. These developments have raised questions about options strategies in the current market environment.

“The market’s been a little bit like a paddling duck…looks calm and smooth on the surface, but those little duck feet have been violently paddling underneath,” she said. “There are moves under the surface, but they’ve had this effect of canceling each other out. So, when you feed back into the VIX (VIX [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VIX]), you don’t see it as much.”

A significant shift has occurred in investor behavior post-COVID, with more concern now about missing upside opportunities than protecting against market downturns, she added.

“A post COVID phenomenon is this idea that the right tail – the upside – is what people are really concerned about because they’re much more concerned about…something ripping that they are not participating in,” Silverman said, mentioning AMD’s partnership [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4501935-amd-surges-25-after-ai-infrastructure-deal-with-openai] with Microsoft (MSFT [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MSFT])-backed OpenAI.

This fear of missing out has driven increased trading in call options for both indices and individual stocks, she said.

The options market for technology stocks (XLK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLK]), (IYW [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IYW]) typically becomes more active as earnings season approaches, though this activity hasn’t fully materialized yet.

Meanwhile, regarding the government shutdown’s impact on financials (XLF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLF]), (IYF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IYF]), Silverman noted that pricing hasn’t increased yet in the sector or the broader market. However, this could change soon if the shutdown continues without resolution.

“I do expect that people are going to start reaching for protection because now it’s going to be a few more days out of that,” she said.

For investors interested in financial sector volatility, the analyst suggested that ETFs like the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KRE]) or the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF (XLF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLF]), which could present opportunities as they tend to experience significant idiosyncratic volatility during uncertain periods.

MORE ON S&P VIX INDEX:

* SPX Options Jump To Record 74% Market Share [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828318-spx-options-jump-to-record-74-percent-market-share]
* Macro Insights From September 2025: A Government Shutdown, The Fed's Gamble, And A Bubble Ready To Burst [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4827454-macro-insights-from-september-2025-a-government-shutdown-the-feds-gamble-and-a-bubble-ready-to-burst]
* Single Stock Volatility Jumps Higher As Earnings Approach [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4826808-single-stock-volatility-jumps-higher-as-earnings-approach]
* Volatility ETPs draw billions despite heavy costs for buy-and-hold investors [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4499688-volatility-etps-draw-billions-despite-heavy-costs-for-buy-and-hold-investors]
* VIX surges to one-month high as investors eye tariffs and brace for payrolls data [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4491116-vix-surges-to-one-month-high-as-investors-eye-tariffs-and-brace-for-payrolls-data]