MSTR Stock Forecast: Can Strategy Sustain Premium in the Face of Bitcoin Treasury Competition?

Michael Saylor's Strategy is no longer the only player in the Bitcoin treasury game. Credit: Jason Koerner/Getty Images for Bitcoin Magazine

Key Takeaways

Strategy has long traded at a premium compared to its underlying assets. However, the gap closed significantly in 2025. Will Strategy’s shrinking premium continue to weigh on its stock price?

As alternative Bitcoin treasury companies have entered the market, the premium Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) investors pay on the firm’s net asset value (NAV) has shrunk significantly.

At one point in late 2024, MSTR traded at nearly four times the value of its underlying assets. But Microstrategy’s price-to-NAV ratio (mNAV) has been trending downward ever since.

MSTR vs. BTC Premium Declines

When Strategy was the only Bitcoin treasury company in the game, this was reflected in its high NAV premium.

However, throughout 2025, the premium has been in near continuous decline. According to its online dashboard, Strategy’s mNAV fell to 1.32 on Oct. 27.

For investors who entered when the pr, the dramatic decline in Strategy’s mNAV in 2025 has essentially wiped out any appreciation in its BTC holdings. At the close of trading on Friday, BTC had year-to-date returns of over 23%. In contrast, MSTR returned just 3% during the same period.

Rising Competition in Bitcoin Treasuries

Several factors inform Strategy’s dwindling NAV premium, not least of which being its Bitcoin treasury business model.

Each time the firm issues new shares to fund its crypto purchases, existing shares are diluted. If the newly raised capital does not immediately result in an equivalent or greater increase in asset value (i.e., more BTC), the NAV per share falls.

As Strategy has continued to issue new stock throughout 2025, shareholders’ concerns about dilution risk perpetuating the decline. When the price of BTC falls, it tends to amplify criticism of the aggressive financing pursued by Chairman Michael Saylor, which may itself impact the premium investors are willing to pay.

Another key factor at play is the proliferation of digital asset treasury companies in 2025.

With so many publicly listed companies now deploying a version of Saylor’s playbook, is Strategy’s premium worth it? It’s certainly harder to justify amid heightened competition, and the market may be pulling MSTR in-line alternatives that trade closer to the value of their assets.

What Next For MSTR?

As the Bitcoin treasury space has expanded, NAV has become a crucial barometer for how the market values each company’s model.

For now, Strategy remains the gold standard amid fears that crypto treasury companies may be forming a bubble. As BTC turned bearish in mid-October, rivals like Metaplanet saw their market value fall below NAV, while MSTR maintained a healthy premium.

Story Continues

Determining the true value provided by treasury firms is crucial for investors. After spot crypto prices, mNAV is the single most important factor that determines how much a stock is worth.

As markets opened on Monday, MSTR jumped to reflect Bitcoin’s weekend gains. However, CCN’s Valdrin Tahirir warned that the long-term outlook remains worrying.

With opinion divided on whether BTC has reached its cycle peak “the MSTR price risks a breakdown from an ascending support trend line that has existed since the start of the year,” he noted. “If a breakdown occurs, it will be a strong sign that the upward movement has ended.”

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