TotalEnergies adjusts share buybacks: Analysts weigh in

Investing.com -- TotalEnergies said Wednesday that it will reduce the pace of its share buybacks to adapt to the current energy environment while maintaining its commitment to dividend growth.

Berenberg downgraded TotalEnergies to Hold in a note, noting that “investing in growth projects will give it attractive volume growth, but in the near term the higher capex required leaves a higher reinvestment ratio than peers and less cash available for shareholder returns.”

The bank said in a note yesterday that it expects the company “to cut its buyback over the coming quarters to protect the balance sheet and maintain a lower gearing level.”

The Integrated LNG business is set to ramp up through 2026/27 as new projects come onstream, but Berenberg warned this may come “into a weaker spot market as global LNG supply increases.”

Despite this, the firm noted that the stock currently trades at a “small premium relative to the sector for 2026E on EV/DACF,” the note added.

Meanwhile, Barclays welcomed the board’s move to reduce buybacks, saying that “gearing now stays low and, perhaps more importantly, the group gets to return to talking to investors about resources, operations and cashflow growth – all things where it screens well vs the peer group.”

TotalEnergies announced $1.5bn of buybacks for 4Q2025, bringing total buybacks for the year to $7.5bn, and provided 2026 guidance of $0.75-1.5bn per quarter, down from $2bn per quarter in 2025.

Barclays noted that the reduced buyback commitment “sits well within our financial assumptions of cash generation and should, we believe, satisfy investors.”

The bank also highlighted that the company will continue prioritising its dividend, which has grown over 20% in the past three years and has not been cut in 40 years, making TotalEnergies “one of the most consistent names in the sector.”

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