Visa targets low double-digit net revenue and EPS growth in 2026 as innovation accelerates

Earnings Call Insights: Visa Inc. (V) Q4 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

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CEO Ryan McInerney highlighted strong financial performance for fiscal year 2025, noting "Fiscal fourth quarter net revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $10.7 billion, and EPS was up 10%, resulting in full year net revenue and EPS year-over-year growth of 11% and 14%, respectively." He emphasized Visa’s position as a "hyperscaler," driving innovation across the Visa as a Service stack and reported total full year payments volume reached $14 trillion, up 8% year-over-year, with 258 billion processed transactions, up 10%.

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McInerney discussed advancements in Visa’s network, stating "visa's network of networks now has approximately 12 billion end points," and introduced support for "4 stablecoins running on 4 unique blockchains representing 2 currencies that we can accept and convert to over 25 traditional fiat currencies." He also shared that over "16 billion Visa tokens" are now in circulation, up from 10 billion in May 2024. Visa also renewed or expanded significant partnerships, including Barclays, Southwest Airlines, Scotiabank, and China Merchants Bank.

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CFO Christopher Suh said "Fiscal fourth quarter net revenue was up 12% year-over-year, better than expected, primarily due to value-added services revenue, commercial and money movement solutions revenue, and a benefit from FX." Suh also noted, "EPS was up 10% year-over-year in both nominal and constant dollars, better than expected -- primarily due to better-than-expected net revenue."

OUTLOOK

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Christopher Suh stated, "In 2026, we expect full year adjusted net revenue growth to be in the low double digits." He added, "We currently expect to grow adjusted operating expense in the low double digits, consistent with our net revenue growth."

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Suh detailed, "We expect Q1 adjusted net revenue growth in the high end of low double digits... As a result, we expect adjusted first quarter EPS growth to be in the low teens." He also affirmed, "We expect the benefit from value-added services to be spread throughout the year as our clients will utilize our solutions in the buildup to and during the [Olympic and FIFA] events."

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Suh confirmed, "Our Board has declared an increase to our quarterly dividend by 14%, and we intend to return excess free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks. All of this results in our adjusted EPS growth to be in the low double digits."

FINANCIAL RESULTS

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Visa reported "full year net revenue grew 11% to $40 billion, and EPS grew 14% to $11.47." In Q4, "Service revenue grew 10% year-over-year," and "Data processing revenue grew 17%." International transaction revenue rose 10%, while client incentives increased 17%.

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For growth engines, "Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 14% year-over-year in constant dollars," with "Commercial payments volume grew 10% in constant dollars, 3 points above Q3 growth." Visa Direct transactions reached "12.6 billion transactions in full year 2025, up 27% year-over-year." Value-added services revenue climbed 25% in constant dollars to $3 billion for the quarter.

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Operating expenses grew 13%, attributed to FX impact and higher personnel expenses, with a tax rate for the quarter of 18.8%. Visa executed $4.9 billion in share buybacks and distributed $1.1 billion in dividends in Q4.

Q&A

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Sanjay Sakhrani (KBW) asked about assumptions behind the outlook amid competitor concerns on consumer discretionary spending. CFO Suh responded, "The growth across our spend bands has remained quite consistent all year... with higher spending cardholders driving more of the growth, and that's consistent with what we see across the U.S. economy."

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James Faucette (Morgan Stanley) inquired about Visa’s role in agentic commerce. CEO McInerney stated, "We've been leading in terms of our role of setting the standards" and highlighted the "Visa Trusted Agent Protocol" as an open framework designed for mass adoption and easy merchant integration.

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Darrin Peller (Wolfe Research) followed up on the new VisaNet rollout and AI. McInerney replied, "We've deployed the next generation of VisaNet... It allows us to ship product more quickly. It allows us to adapt to ecosystem changes more quickly."

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Rayna Kumar (Oppenheimer) noted a slight deceleration in Latin America. Suh attributed it to "moderating inflation that we've seen in Argentina" but emphasized the region remains high growth.

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Harshita Rawat (Bernstein) questioned stablecoin opportunities. McInerney said, "We see opportunities in issuance, in modernizing our settlement network," and detailed initiatives including cross-border money movement and consulting.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

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Analysts raised probing questions about macroeconomic assumptions, agentic commerce, regional deceleration, and stablecoin opportunities. Their tone was neutral to slightly positive, with curiosity around strategic initiatives and product roadmap acceleration.

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Management maintained a confident and forward-looking tone, frequently emphasizing innovation, leadership, and robust business momentum. McInerney’s closing remarks included, "I don't ever recall being so excited about the opportunities ahead of this company."

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Compared to the previous quarter, management and analysts' tone remained optimistic, with continued focus on innovation and resilience. Management’s language reflected sustained confidence, while analysts maintained a constructive but inquisitive posture.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

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Guidance for 2026 shifted to explicit "low double digits" net revenue and EPS growth, reiterating consistency with 2025 but providing more precise targets.

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Strategic focus expanded with more detailed updates on agentic commerce, stablecoin initiatives, and VisaNet’s next generation rollout. The emphasis on value-added services grew, as did disclosures on regional dynamics and product launches.

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Key metrics such as processed transactions, payments volume, and value-added services revenue showed acceleration or stable high growth compared to Q3.

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Analysts’ focus evolved toward innovation themes—agentic commerce, AI, and stablecoins—while also probing geographic and volume trends. Management’s confidence remained high, with more direct references to product pipeline and investment priorities.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

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Management acknowledged "a significant step-up in uncertainty around the globe" and cited "volatility throughout the year" as an expectation for 2026.

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Suh stated, "We are not economic forecasters, so we're assuming the macroeconomic environment stays generally where it is today and consumer spending remains resilient."

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Analysts raised concerns about macroeconomic volatility, regional slowdowns (notably in Latin America), holiday sales trends, and the timing of innovation adoption.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Visa closed fiscal 2025 with strong growth across core metrics and set expectations for continued momentum, targeting low double-digit net revenue and EPS growth in 2026. Management underscored innovation in agentic commerce, stablecoins, and AI as central to strategy, supported by robust partnerships and product launches. The outlook remains optimistic, underpinned by a resilient business model and significant investment in future opportunities.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/v/earnings/transcripts]

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