Coinbase Q3 2025 Earnings Preview - What to Expect

[Coinbase Releases Third-Quarter Financial Results]
Leon Neal/Getty Images News

Coinbase (COIN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COIN]) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Thursday, October 30th, after market close, and the stock faces a slide if trading volume decreases further.

The consensus EPS estimate [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COIN/earnings/estimates?period=quarterly] is $1.19 and the consensus revenue estimate is $1.81B (+49.6% Y/Y).

Last quarter, shares slid ~6% after the crypto exchange posted earnings and revenue [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4476003-coinbase-stock-slides-after-q2-earnings-revenue-fall-short-issues-q3-outlook] that fell short of the average analysts estimate as trading volume cooled down markedly.

Trading volume [https://s27.q4cdn.com/397450999/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/Q2-2025-Shareholder-Letter.pdf] was down to $237B in Q2 2025 from $393B in Q1 2025 and $439B in Q4 2024.

Subscription and services revenue dipped 6% quarter-over-quarter to $656M in Q2 2025. Transaction revenue dropped 39% to $764M.

For Q3, Coinbase had then said it sees subscription and services revenue of $665M-$745M (midpoint $705M vs. $742M Visible Alpha consensus).

Notably, Compass Point downgraded [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4477257-coinbase-downgraded-as-compass-point-sees-choppy-q3-for-crypto] the stock after the earnings release on "a choppy Q3 alongside weak August/September seasonality and waning retail interest in crypto treasury stocks".

"COIN's Q2/Q3 trends affirm weakening earnings despite an ongoing crypto bull market," analyst Ed Engel had said in the research note.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COIN/earnings/revisions?period=quarterly] have seen 6 upward revisions and 10 downward revisions. Revenue estimates have seen 14 upward revisions and 5 downward revisions.

"Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices. Stocks with rising earnings estimates, as a group, have materially outperformed the S&P 500 year-after-year. Similarly, stocks with falling earnings estimates have underperformed the S&P 500 year-after-year," stated Zack Research in a research note.

However, in the case of Coinbase, despite the downward EPS revisions, Wall Street analysts [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COIN/ratings/sell-side-ratings] are bullish on the stock and grade COIN as Buy.

"Mgmt guided to $665-745M for Q3, but we model $779M due to USDC in circulation growth, staked token price appreciation, and the ~$17B of net new AUC assets from the U.S. bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETPs alone in Q3," said J.P. Morgan upgrading the crypto exchange to Overweight from Neutral.

"Separately, we model quarterly expenses near the higher end of mgmt guidance, leading to JPMe Q3 adj. EBITDA of $796M," said the research note. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA had come in at $512M, down from $930M in Q1 2025.

"Revenue will fluctuate for COIN, as transactional volume does for crypto, but their growth in their subscription and services side is a great addition to bolster other revenue growth in lower volume periods for digital assets," said [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4833972-coinbase-buy-on-growing-revenue-streams] Seeking Alpha author Blake Winiecki [https://seekingalpha.com/author/blake-winiecki].

"They have put themselves in a good position to create revenue through multiple streams," said Winiecki, citing the stock will have a tendency to be volatile for the foreseeable future.

Seeking Alpha authors [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COIN/ratings/author-ratings] as well as the Quant Rating [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/COIN/ratings/quant-ratings] system assign the stock a Hold rating.

"Trading remains the heart of Coinbase's business at the moment though, and while volumes will naturally fluctuate over time, institutional adoption and derivatives are reasons to be bullish about this part of the business," noted [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4831881-coinbase-distribution-an-advantage-as-tokenization-grows] SA contributor Richard Durant [https://seekingalpha.com/author/richard-durant].

Insiders are net sellers, with the company seeing 23 sell transactions in the last three months against 6 open market buys.

Short interest stood at 6.29% of the total float as of October 15, compared to 6.94% at June-end.

The stock is up ~40% year-to-date.

MORE ON COINBASE

* Coinbase: Buy On Growing Revenue Streams [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4833972-coinbase-buy-on-growing-revenue-streams]
* Coinbase: Distribution An Advantage As Tokenization Grows [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4831881-coinbase-distribution-an-advantage-as-tokenization-grows]
* Coinbase: A Bullish Year-End Could Spark A Multiple Expansion [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4825814-coinbase-a-bullish-year-end-could-spark-a-multiple-expansion]
* Coinbase Asset Management teams up with Apollo on stablecoin strategies [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4509031-coinbase-asset-management-teams-up-with-apollo-on-stablecoin-strategies]
* Citi teams up with Coinbase to boost digital asset payment capabilities for clients [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4508821-citi-teams-up-with-coinbase-to-boost-digital-asset-payment-capabilities-for-clients]