Novocure outlines four-indication expansion and profitability target for 2027 as GBM growth continues

Earnings Call Insights: Novocure Limited (NVCR) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* Executive Chairman William Doyle stated that Novocure is transitioning from a single indication company to a platform therapy company, with a focus on "preparing to treat 4 cancer indications by year-end 2026," reaching profitability, and making disciplined investments to strengthen the product portfolio. Doyle emphasized, "We ended the third quarter with 4,277 GBM patients on therapy, our largest patient count to date," and noted strong international growth, especially in France, Japan, and Germany.
* Doyle acknowledged challenges in the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) launch, reporting, "our launch is behind expectations. And in Q3, we did not see a continuation of the linear growth we've seen in the prior 2 quarters." He cited poor patient health, competition from targeted therapies, and limited therapy duration as contributing factors.
* Doyle highlighted the recent approval of Optune Lua in Japan for advanced or recurrent NSCLC and described Japan as a "consistently strong region" with anticipated strong physician adoption. He added, "an important upcoming milestone for Optune Lua is our Japan launch."
* CEO Ashley Cordova reported, "PANOVA-3 demonstrated Tumor Treating Fields' ability to extend survival and preserve quality of life in pancreatic cancer." Cordova confirmed that the PANOVA-3 data submission to the FDA was accepted and is in substantive review, with approval expected mid next year. She also updated on the METIS trial for brain metastases, stating, "Our timeline for the full PMA submission is unchanged, and we continue to expect to complete the filing by year-end 2025."
* Cordova discussed product development, including the launch of a new patient app and physician portal, and stated, "Over 78% of U.S. GBM patients are users of the new app," and "over 60% of our target sites are active on the portal."
* CFO Christoph Brackmann stated, "We continued our positive momentum this quarter with net revenues of $167 million, an increase of 8% from the third quarter last year." Brackmann reported, "We collected $3.1 million from Optune Lua claims in the quarter," and a gross margin of 73%. He added, "Net loss for the quarter was $37 million with a loss per share of $0.33. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was negative $3 million."

OUTLOOK

* Doyle reiterated confidence in Novocure's "plans to achieve profitability" and the company's ability to leverage infrastructure for upcoming launches in pancreatic cancer and brain metastases.
* Cordova stated, "we are on the verge of becoming a true platform therapy company. With 4 indications expected in market by year-end 2026, our teams are excited about the opportunity to treat many more patients in need and continue our pursuit of profitability in the year to follow."
* Brackmann explained, "We are committed to breaking even sustainably on an adjusted EBITDA basis in 2027 with the revenue contribution from new indications."

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Brackmann reported net revenues of $167 million for Q3 2025, primarily driven by active patient growth in the GBM franchise and international performance. Gross margin was 73%, down due to the rollout of HFE arrays, ongoing NSCLC launch, and increased tariffs. The quarter included a $2.9 million inventory obsolescence provision for Optune Lua arrays.
* Research and development costs were $54 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, while sales and marketing expenses were $59 million, a 2% decrease from Q2 last year. General and administrative expenses rose to $46 million, a 15% increase. Cash and investments at the end of Q3 were $1.034 billion.

Q&A

* Jason Bednar, Piper Sandler & Co.: Asked about the lung launch in Germany and Japan, and reimbursement progress. CEO Cordova responded, "in Germany...there is no new news...it's early days, and our teams are there executing and building those relationships." On Japan, she said, "we have received approval for Optune Lua in Japan, but we have not yet received national reimbursement...we're quite hopeful that it will be materially different than the trajectory we've seen in the U.S. and Germany."
* Bednar followed up on commercial reimbursement and NCCN guidelines. Cordova replied, "we submitted at the end of last year. We know that the package and the application was reviewed in early July, and we would expect the updated guidelines to be published in the upcoming months." She noted, "approval rates above our internal expectations" for commercial reimbursement.
* Kevin Joaquin, Evercore ISI: Sought details on NSCLC launch expectations, LUNAR-4 program termination, and related spend. Cordova declined to share internal targets but stated, "we always knew that this would be a slower ramp...it's somewhat harder than we expected, but we do continue to look ahead to growth." Brackmann added, "the savings that we expect is in the mid to high single-digit million."
* Tanmay Patwardhan: Inquired about NSCLC prescription dynamics and gross margin. President Leonard addressed prescription noise, and Brackmann detailed gross margin drivers and expected recovery after launch transition periods.
* [Evelyn], Leerink Partners: Asked about unique prescribers and profitability. Cordova clarified, "that stat is specific to Q3," and Brackmann reiterated breaking even on adjusted EBITDA at "a revenue level of $700 million to $750 million," expected in 2027.
* Emily Bodnar, H.C. Wainwright: Queried on lung ramp expectations and pancreatic launch learnings. Cordova highlighted platform investments and confidence in multi-product growth; Leonard emphasized pivots to "educate not just the physician, but the practice."

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts pressed on the slow lung cancer launch, reimbursement, and profitability, reflecting a slightly negative to neutral sentiment, particularly regarding growth challenges and prescription trends.
* Management acknowledged headwinds but maintained a confident tone, repeatedly emphasizing adaptability and commitment to profitability. Cordova’s "we remain committed to that path and can see getting there throughout those launches" underscored this confidence.
* Compared to the previous quarter, analyst skepticism about the lung launch has increased, while management’s tone shifted from optimistic to pragmatically confident, especially in Q&A.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Guidance for reaching profitability is now more precisely tied to adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2027 at $700 million to $750 million revenue, versus the prior quarter’s reference to $750 million as a general anchor.
* GBM patient growth remains steady, but NSCLC launch momentum has slowed, with patient count flat in the U.S. versus Q2’s incremental gains.
* Management’s tone shifted from framing the lung launch as "on track" to acknowledging it is "behind expectations" and "harder than we expected."
* Analysts focused more on launch ramp rates, regional rollouts, and margin sustainability than in the previous quarter.
* Strategic focus on leveraging existing infrastructure for future launches and disciplined investment was repeated, but with a greater sense of cost control urgency.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Management cited slow NSCLC adoption, competitive targeted drug therapies, and limited therapy duration as challenges.
* Reimbursement—especially in the U.S. Medicare system and in Japan—remains a key risk, with management awaiting NCCN guideline updates.
* Margin pressure from product rollout, tariffs, and treating patients prior to reimbursement was discussed, and management indicated some control over patient acceptance to mitigate these impacts.
* The complexity of launching device-based therapies in academic and community settings was acknowledged, with ongoing commercial strategy pivots.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Novocure management emphasized the company’s evolution toward a platform therapy model, targeting four cancer indications by the end of 2026 and a path to sustained profitability in 2027. While core GBM business continues to show growth and international expansion, the NSCLC launch has faced greater challenges than anticipated, leading to refined commercial strategies and cost discipline. Confidence remains high in the value of Tumor Treating Fields and the upcoming launches in pancreatic cancer and brain metastases, with management committed to leveraging its investments and infrastructure to achieve long-term financial goals.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/nvcr/earnings/transcripts]

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