Louisiana-Pacific outlines $1.68B revenue target as CEO transition and ExpertFinish growth reshape strategy

Earnings Call Insights: Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* Chairman & CEO William Southern reported that "Siding volume in the third quarter was flat" but emphasized confidence in ongoing share gains, highlighting "5% growth in Siding sales revenue, driven primarily by price and a strong mix." Southern stated, "ExpertFinish accounted for 10% of overall Siding volume and 17% of overall Siding revenue in the quarter," with its sales volumes up 17% year-over-year, citing the April launch of the naturals collection as a driver of beneficial price mix effect.
* Southern announced his intention to retire in February after 25 years, naming President Jason Ringblom as the next CEO, saying, "I have total confidence that with Jason, LP's future has never been brighter."
* Executive VP & CFO Alan J. Haughie described, "Average selling prices were up 5% with prime products of 3% and ExpertFinish prices up 12%." Haughie added, "OSB prices spent most of the quarter barely above variable cost driven by sluggish demand, particularly in the Southeast," and noted "overall efficiency hit 80%, up 2 points from last year."

OUTLOOK

* Haughie stated, "We reaffirm our full year EBITDA guidance of $430 million" for Siding, projecting "fourth quarter revenue of about $370 million and to EBITDA of about $82 million."
* Full year revenue growth rate was adjusted "from 9% to 8% for revenue of roughly $1.68 billion," with the full year EBITDA margin guide increased "to about 26%."
* Regarding OSB, Haughie reported, "fourth quarter OSB guidance has only slightly improved" and expects "$45 million of EBITDA loss in the fourth quarter and breakeven for the year."
* The company is exploring the conversion of its OSB mill in Maniwaki, Quebec to Siding, pausing further mill-specific spending while evaluating this option.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Total sales in the quarter were reported as down 8% compared to the prior year, and EBITDA was $82 million. Haughie attributed the decline primarily to "the extended trough in OSB prices."
* Operating cash flow was $89 million, with $84 million invested in CapEx and $19 million in dividends. The company ended the quarter with $316 million in cash and over $1 billion in liquidity.
* Haughie noted, "Our expectation for full year total company EBITDA has actually risen by $20 million from $405 million 3 months ago, to $425 million today."
* CapEx guidance has been reduced to reflect deferral of projects, especially in OSB.

Q&A

* George Staphos, BofA Securities, asked about the potential shift from Houlton to Maniwaki and competitive dynamics. Jason Ringblom explained the mill conversion decision will depend on "timing and capital efficiency, really coupled with the network optimization benefits that any given option has the potential to add."
* Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs, inquired about Siding pricing into 2026. Ringblom responded, "Within the last 7 to 10 days, we did announce a price increase... targeting the net somewhere between 3% and 4% in '26."
* Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets, questioned shed volumes and the transition toward bundling Siding and OSB. Ringblom said shed business "has normalized in that segment, but we were up year-over-year" and described the bundling initiative as "still very much in the infancy stage of that process."
* Sean Steuart, TD Cowen, asked about Maniwaki's timeline and Section 232 tariffs. Aaron Howald responded that tariffs are "noise that currently is a net benefit," but "the long-term reasons for Maniwaki...would be the fundamental market dynamics and the efficiencies that, that mill would bring."
* Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners, probed the cautious perspective on next year and capex implications. Southern said the timing shift is due to "the most recent starts forecast that we follow, it seems pretty flat or low single-digit growth year-over-year."
* Kathryn Thompson, Thompson Research Group, explored ExpertFinish share gains and sustainability. Ringblom highlighted incremental capacity coming online in early next year and stated, "we think the demand is sticky."

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts' tone was neutral, focusing on operational details, strategy, and implications of leadership transition. Questions were fact-based with limited skepticism or visible concern.
* Management maintained a confident tone in prepared remarks, using phrases such as "our confidence that we can continue to execute our strategy and achieve our ambitious goals has never been stronger," but became slightly more cautious in Q&A, particularly when discussing OSB markets and timing of investments.
* Compared to the previous quarter, both analysts and management displayed similar sentiment, though there was increased attention on market softness and capacity strategy in the current quarter.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Guidance for full-year Siding EBITDA and revenue was reaffirmed, but the revenue growth rate was adjusted down slightly from 9% to 8% and full year EBITDA guidance increased from $405 million to $425 million.
* Strategic focus shifted from rapid expansion to a more measured evaluation of mill conversion options, citing market softness and updated housing start forecasts.
* Analysts' questions in both quarters emphasized Siding growth, OSB market conditions, and capital allocation, but the current quarter featured expanded discussion of leadership transition and product innovation.
* Management's confidence in Siding growth and innovation remained strong, while their discussion of OSB reflected continued caution and a focus on cost control.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Management cited "the extended trough in OSB prices" and "sluggish demand, particularly in the Southeast" as primary challenges.
* Softness in the new construction segment, especially in southern markets, and continued economic sluggishness in South America were noted.
* Analysts probed the sustainability of share gains, supply chain adjustments, and the impact of delayed capex, but management expressed confidence in available capacity and ability to respond to demand changes.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation delivered strong Siding sales growth and margin expansion driven by pricing, product mix, and innovation in ExpertFinish, while navigating persistent OSB market headwinds. The company is reaffirming its Siding EBITDA guidance and adjusting its full-year revenue outlook to $1.68 billion, with a focus on disciplined capital allocation and evaluating conversion options for future Siding capacity. A CEO transition is imminent, with confidence in the continuity of strategy and execution as LPX leverages its diversified portfolio and operational discipline to drive long-term value.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/lpx/earnings/transcripts]

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