Bunge upgraded, Ingredion downgraded at Barclays after Q3 results

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Barclays on Thursday upgraded Bunge (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]) to Overweight from a previous investment rating of Equal Weight, citing stronger long-term margins and integration benefits from the company’s recent merger with Viterra.

The bank simultaneously downgraded Ingredion (INGR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INGR]) to Equal Weight from Overweight, and reiterated an Equal Weight rating on Archer Daniels Midland (ADM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADM]).

BUNGE: VITERRA INTEGRATION DRIVING OPTIMISM

Lead analyst Benjamin Theurer wrote that Bunge’s (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]) first post-merger quarter showed “strong execution” and limited dilution from the Viterra deal. Third-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.27 topped estimates, driven by strength in soybean and grain merchandising, while annual guidance was maintained. Barclays expects additional synergies in 2026, improved logistics, and “better mid-cycle earnings,” positioning the agribusiness giant to outperform peers next year.

Bunge’s (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]) leverage sits at 2.2 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or ebitda, with capital expenditures expected to decline meaningfully after 2026 as integration spending winds down. Management plans to resume share repurchases in 2026, supported by more than $1 billion in annual free cash flow and proceeds from non-core asset sales.

INGREDION: CONSUMER WEAKNESS WEIGHS

In contrast, Barclays sees headwinds for Ingredion (INGR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INGR]), noting “a weaker consumer environment and limited volume gains” across food and industrial ingredients. The firm expects profit growth to slow as the company recovers from plant outages and macroeconomic softness in Latin America and North America.

Adjusted EPS estimates were trimmed to $11.15 for full-year 2025 and $11.35 for 2026, while the long-term valuation multiple was lowered to 11.1 times forward price-to-earnings, slightly below the three-year average. The report highlighted strength in Ingredion’s (INGR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INGR]) Texture & Healthful Solutions segment but warned that “sluggish demand in sweeteners and industrial starches” will cap earnings momentum through 2026.

ADM: NEUTRAL VIEW MAINTAINED AMID BIOFUEL DOUBTS

Barclays maintained a neutral stance on Archer Daniels Midland (ADM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADM]), saying “we see potential upside in Nutrition” as key plants return to full capacity, but ongoing uncertainty around biofuel policy and weaker crush margins continue to limit near-term upside.

ADM’s (ADM [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ADM]) third-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.92 a share narrowly beat expectations, though guidance was cut to $3.25 to $3.50 for full-year 2025. The firm expects a gradual recovery in its Nutrition segment but softer earnings from Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions due to delayed policy clarity and slower grain sales.

SECTOR OUTLOOK

Overall, Barclays forecasts softer U.S. soy crush margins into early 2026 amid delayed biofuel announcements but sees stability ahead as trade tensions with China ease. The research noted that China recently committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons of soybeans by year-end, followed by 25 million tons annually through 2028, a key stabilizer for North American agribusiness exporters.

Barclays maintains a neutral sector view on Americas agribusiness, expecting selective outperformance from vertically integrated firms such as Bunge (BG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/BG]) as global harvests improve in Brazil, Argentina and Australia.

MORE ON BUNGE, ARCHER-DANIELS-MIDLAND, ETC.

* Bunge Global SA 2025 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4838393-bunge-global-sa-2025-q3-results-earnings-call-presentation]
* Bunge Global SA (BG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4838239-bunge-global-sa-bg-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
* Archer-Daniels-Midland Company 2025 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4837655-archer-daniels-midland-company-2025-q3-results-earnings-call-presentation]
* Bunge Global signals $7.30–$7.60 adjusted EPS outlook for 2025 while advancing Viterra integration [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4515872-bunge-global-signals-7_30-7_60-adjusted-eps-outlook-for-2025-while-advancing-viterra]
* Bunge Non-GAAP EPS of $2.27 beats by $0.30, revenue of $22.16B misses by $1.03B [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4515493-bunge-non-gaap-eps-of-2_27-beats-by-0_30-revenue-of-22_16b-misses-by-1_03b]