Robinhood targets over 50% of revenue outside U.S. in 10 years as product innovation accelerates

Earnings Call Insights: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

*
CEO Vladimir Tenev highlighted "record equity and option trading volumes" and stated that October set new all-time daily and monthly records for both equities and options. Tenev characterized Q3 as a period of "relentless product velocity" across Robinhood’s three main focus areas: active traders, wallet share for the next generation, and building a global financial ecosystem.

*
Tenev announced, "Prediction markets are really on fire... We've doubled volume every quarter since then to 2.3 billion contracts in Q3. And the month of October alone was up to 2.5 billion contracts." He emphasized the rapid growth and expanded categories beyond sports, noting over 1,000 live contracts now available.

*
Tenev reported that assets on the platform are now "up to over 1/3 of $1 trillion" and retirement assets "now up over $25 billion, which more than doubled in the past year." Robinhood Strategies, launched in March, reached over $1 billion in assets.

*
On the banking front, he highlighted the Gold Card’s growth to "over 0.5 million cardholders with over $8 billion in annual spend," a 5x increase in cardholders since the year’s start. Early rollout of Robinhood Banking is underway with positive initial customer feedback.

*
Tenev outlined a long-term vision: "10 years from now, the aim is to have over half of our revenue be outside the U.S. and also cut another way... over half being non-retail institutional."

*
For international progress, Tenev cited "tokenization, which are stock tokens in the EU. We're now up to 400-plus public companies and growing," and highlighted Bitstamp volume growth of "60-plus percent quarter-over-quarter."

*
CFO Jason Warnick stated, "Revenue doubled while margins expanded and earnings per share more than tripled from last year. Year-to-date through Q3, revenues are up 65%. Earnings per share is up 150%." Warnick further noted, "Prediction Markets and Bitstamp each surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue... Prediction Markets... is already tracking towards a $300 million run rate based on October volumes."

*
Warnick also discussed expense management: "Q3 adjusted OpEx and share-based compensation came in at $613 million... driven by... higher Q3 employee bonus accrual" and market-based award vesting-related payroll tax expense.

*
Warnick announced his retirement in Q1 2026, with Shiv Verma set to become CFO. Verma stated that "our financial North Star is going to remain the same, grow earnings per share and free cash flow per share and compound long-term shareholder value, plain and simple."

OUTLOOK

*
Warnick indicated that full-year 2025 adjusted OpEx plus SBC is expected to be around $2.28 billion, subject to change with business performance and investment in growth areas like Prediction Markets and Robinhood Ventures.

*
Warnick provided an October update: "October was a strong month across the business. We saw continued momentum in net deposits, new records set across equities, options, prediction markets, and margin and a nice step-up in crypto volumes."

FINANCIAL RESULTS

*
Tenev reported "revenues up over 100% year-over-year to a record of nearly $1.3 billion," with "record net deposits in the quarter, over $20 billion."

*
Warnick stated, "Trading volumes were up double to triple digits across equities, options and crypto, and we continue to grow market share across product categories."

*
Robinhood Gold reached 3.9 million subscribers, a 75% year-over-year increase. Interest-earning assets rose over 50%. Securities lending hit an all-time high, aided by an improving IPO environment.

*
Adjusted OpEx and SBC totaled $613 million for Q3, which was approximately $40 million above the midpoint of prior guidance due to strong business performance and related compensation.

Q&A

*
Preston asked about the Robinhood Banking rollout. Tenev responded, "This will be a relatively fast rollout... The rollout will just be governed by customer feedback. We like what we see thus far."

*
A question regarding platform resiliency after an AWS outage prompted Tenev to say, "If this had happened... a few years ago, we probably would have been fully down. But we made a lot of investments... every outage like this... is an opportunity for us to further strengthen our resilience."

*
Patrick Moley, Piper Sandler: "You've obviously become one of the leaders in [Prediction Markets]... what do you think gives you the right to win long term?" Tenev replied, "We have distribution... 26 million-plus funded accounts... In the same way... customers are well served because there's a wide variety of venues... the power continues to be in our distribution and offering a wide variety of products and services."

*
Alexander Markgraff, KeyBanc: "Just want to understand better as you've moved through the third quarter and early part of the fourth quarter, the mix of smart exchange routing..." Warnick said, "The blended take rate is kind of in the high $0.60 zone... customers... bringing more of their trading volume to Robinhood."

*
Several analysts probed the international and tokenization strategies, Bitstamp’s role, and long-term family wealth transfer opportunities. Management repeatedly cited large addressable markets and early positive signs, while emphasizing ongoing product expansion and platform differentiation.

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

*
Analysts expressed positive sentiment, frequently congratulating management on growth and innovation, and posing questions about strategic initiatives such as Prediction Markets, tokenization, and international expansion.

*
Management’s tone was confident and forward-looking in both prepared remarks and Q&A, frequently referencing strong engagement, product launches, and market share gains. Phrases such as "We are continuing to grow," "We feel great about Q3 product velocity and results," and "We're going to continue to rollout" signaled high confidence.

*
Compared to the previous quarter, the tone remained upbeat, though more emphasis was placed this quarter on international ambitions, new asset class growth, and operational resilience.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

*
Guidance for adjusted OpEx plus SBC increased to $2.28 billion for full year 2025, compared to the prior range of $2.15 to $2.25 billion last quarter, reflecting bonus accruals and award vesting.

*
Product updates this quarter included the accelerated rollout of Robinhood Banking, a significant expansion in Prediction Markets, and the addition of 100+ new contracts and categories.

*
The company reported higher volumes, revenue, and net deposits compared to Q2, with record results in several categories.

*
Analysts maintained a positive, inquisitive tone, with greater attention this quarter on international growth, new products, and management succession.

*
Management’s confidence remained high, with an increased focus on diversification and long-term global ambitions.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

*
Tenev cited ongoing investment in platform resilience following the AWS outage, stating every incident leads to further hardening of infrastructure.

*
Warnick noted the possibility of adjusted OpEx plus SBC exceeding $2.28 billion, depending on business performance and investment needs.

*
Analysts flagged competitive pressures in Prediction Markets and crypto, questioning the sustainability of current growth rates and strategic differentiation.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Robinhood finished Q3 2025 with record financial results, strong growth in active trading, and a clear strategic push toward international expansion and product innovation. Management outlined ambitions for over half of revenue to come from outside the U.S. in the next decade, supported by rapid growth in new asset classes, robust platform performance, and ongoing diversification. The company is navigating leadership transition, investing in operational resilience, and accelerating key initiatives in banking, tokenization, and Prediction Markets, positioning itself for continued growth and market share gains.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/hood/earnings/transcripts]

MORE ON ROBINHOOD MARKETS

* Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4838752-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
* Robinhood: Valuation And Late-Cycle Excess Make This An Unattractive Stock [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4833757-robinhood-valuation-and-late-cycle-excess-make-this-an-unattractive-stock]
* Why Robinhood Stock Faces Headwinds Despite Past Growth [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828797-why-robinhood-stock-faces-headwinds-despite-past-growth]
* Robinhood Q3 earnings beat, but expenses exceed expectations [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4516351-robinhood-q3-earnings-beat-but-expenses-exceed-expectations]
* Robinhood Markets GAAP EPS of $0.61 beats by $0.07, revenue of $1.27B beats by $50M [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4516377-robinhood-markets-gaap-eps-of-061-beats-by-007-revenue-of-127b-beats-by-50m]