Is Mondelez (MDLZ) Trading Off Profit Margins for Growth With Its Updated 2025 Outlook?

Mondelez International recently reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings, citing US$9.74 billion in sales, but with net income declining to US$743 million from US$853 million in the previous year; the company also updated its guidance to forecast organic net revenue growth above 4% for the full year and continued share buybacks. While sales increased, the fall in net income alongside a reaffirmed growth outlook and ongoing share repurchases highlights the company's balancing act between top-line momentum and margin pressures. With new guidance pointing to organic net revenue growth of 4% or more, we'll explore what this means for Mondelez’s investment narrative.

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Mondelez International Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Mondelez International, you need to believe in the long-term potential of its global brands to grow revenue through pricing and innovation, even while managing cost pressures. The recent Q3 results, showing higher sales but lower net income, do not appear to fundamentally alter the biggest risk right now: margin pressure from elevated input costs, particularly cocoa. The reaffirmed outlook for organic net revenue growth above 4% keeps the short-term catalyst, successful pricing execution, intact.

Among the recent announcements, Mondelez's completion of US$1,805.59 million in share repurchases stands out. This ongoing buyback program could support shareholder value, especially in a quarter marked by margin challenges, and serves as a relevant backdrop against its efforts to deliver on near-term revenue ambitions.

Yet, beneath these capital returns, investors should be aware that higher sales can mask the risk around persistently elevated cocoa costs and their impact on net margins, especially if...

Read the full narrative on Mondelez International (it's free!)

Mondelez International's outlook anticipates $42.7 billion in revenue and $4.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on a projected 4.8% annual revenue growth rate and a $1.1 billion increase in earnings from the current $3.6 billion.

Uncover how Mondelez International's forecasts yield a $69.61 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesMDLZ Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$69.35 to US$113.95 per share. With input cost risks clouding margin recovery, these varied perspectives illustrate how investors can interpret new earnings signals very differently, consider reviewing more viewpoints before making decisions.

Story Continues

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Mondelez International - why the stock might be worth just $69.35!

Build Your Own Mondelez International Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

A great starting point for your Mondelez International research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Our free Mondelez International research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Mondelez International's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MDLZ.

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