Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT): Exploring Valuation as Shares Cool Off After Recent Performance

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) shares edged lower in the latest trading session, closing at $18.14. The stock is showing a slightly negative performance over the past month, which is drawing investor attention to broader trends in real estate financing.

See our latest analysis for Blackstone Mortgage Trust.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s share price has cooled off recently, dipping about 3% over the past month. However, the stock’s 8% total shareholder return over the past year signals that patient investors are still finding solid long-term value here as market sentiment ebbs and flows.

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With Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s shares trading below analyst price targets and following a year of solid returns, investors must ask whether there is discounted value left to unlock or if the market has already factored in future gains.

Most Popular Narrative: 11.5% Undervalued

With Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s fair value estimate at $20.50, the stock’s last close at $18.14 may look intriguing to those following popular valuation narratives. This perspective sets the groundwork for a closer look at what is driving expectations for future upside.

The launch of a net lease investment strategy, particularly in defensive business sectors, is expected to provide stable cash flows and enhance both diversification and resilience of the revenue stream. This could support consistent revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

What is the growth engine fueling this enticing price target? Key upgrades to asset allocation and a sharp turn to higher-yielding investments underpin the story. Want the inside track on which future earnings and revenue leaps give this narrative its punch? Click to see the full blueprint behind the valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $20.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering uncertainty from tariff policy and delayed loan repayments could still disrupt revenue growth and create challenges for Blackstone Mortgage Trust in increasing its margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative.

Another View: Looking at Sales Valuation

While analyst targets suggest Blackstone Mortgage Trust could be undervalued, its current price-to-sales ratio sits at 13x. This is steep compared to the US Mortgage REITs industry average of 4.3x and a peer average of 7.6x. The estimated fair ratio is just 4x. This signals the market is pricing in optimistic growth and leaves little immediate margin for error. Could the stock’s premium make it riskier than it looks?

Story Continues

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.NYSE:BXMT PS Ratio as at Oct 2025

Build Your Own Blackstone Mortgage Trust Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive into the numbers yourself, crafting your own view on Blackstone Mortgage Trust takes just a few minutes. So why not Do it your way?

A great starting point for your Blackstone Mortgage Trust research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BXMT.

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