Starbucks (SBUX): Exploring Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound

Starbucks (SBUX) shares have seen modest movement lately, trading at $85.57 after a roughly 6% rise this month. Investors appear focused on the company's ongoing performance and what it could mean for future returns.

See our latest analysis for Starbucks.

Starbucks has enjoyed a rebound in recent weeks, with a 9% one-month share price return reflecting renewed optimism after a tough start to the year. Even so, its 1-year total shareholder return is still down by just over 10%, signaling that momentum is only starting to rebuild.

If Starbucks’ recent bounce has you thinking about what else is gaining traction, this could be the perfect moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares rebounding but the stock still trading below analyst targets, the big question is whether Starbucks is now undervalued and poised for further gains, or if the recent momentum has already accounted for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 9.1% Undervalued

With Starbucks' fair value pegged at $94.17 and the stock last closing at $85.57, the most followed analyst narrative points to notable upside driven by anticipated operational recovery and top-line growth. The narrative sets out a case for gradual improvement as store restructuring and cost initiatives play out, contrasting Starbucks’ moderate rebound with analysts’ measured optimism.

The Back to Starbucks strategy and Green Apron model aim to enhance customer experience and reduce service times. These efforts are designed to increase transactions and potential revenue. Expanding in growth markets and focusing on local execution, particularly in China, is expected to boost global revenue and mitigate risks.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what fuels this valuation power play? Discover the bold growth rates, profit forecasts, and margin leaps that underpin the most optimistic numbers. See which eye-opening assumptions drive the consensus fair value and why Starbucks bulls are betting on a multi-year comeback.

Result: Fair Value of $94.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a dip in comparable store sales and ongoing pressures on operating margins could challenge the case for a steady recovery in the period ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this Starbucks narrative.

Another View: Is the Market Paying Too Much?

Looking through the lens of price-to-earnings, Starbucks trades at 37 times earnings, a big premium over the US Hospitality sector average of 21.2x and the fair ratio of 31.8x. This means investors are paying more for Starbucks’ future profits than both the industry and what the market model suggests is reasonable. Could this high multiple limit upside, or does Starbucks’ brand justify it?

Story Continues

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.NasdaqGS:SBUX PE Ratio as at Nov 2025

Build Your Own Starbucks Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can craft your own Starbucks outlook in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Starbucks research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SBUX.

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