Serve Robotics targets $2.5M 2025 revenue and 2,000 robot deployment as fleet expansion accelerates

Earnings Call Insights: Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

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CEO Ali Kashani highlighted that Serve Robotics reached "the threshold for 1,000 robots deployed," calling this "an inflection point" and emphasizing the company's role in "rewriting the operating system of how cities function, how goods move, how spaces are shared, how businesses reach residents." Kashani outlined four converging forces enabling rapid growth: advances in physical AI, maturation of hardware components, consumer demand for on-demand ordering, and city-driven adoption of cleaner, quieter logistics. He stated, "Our third quarter results prove that we are on the right track with all this. Our delivery reliability was nearly 100%, while our delivery volume increased 66% in a single quarter, and we continue to maintain a strong safety record. We now deliver for over 3,600 restaurants, which is an amazing 45% increase from the last quarter and more than a ninefold increase since last year."

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Kashani reported the company expanded from "1 market to 5 fully operational hubs covering over 3 million population and well over 1 million households," representing "nearly 70% increase in a single quarter and more than a tenfold increase in our coverage compared to the same time last year." Serve announced new partnerships, including DoorDash, and added Jersey Mike's Subs to its customer base, with plans for another national QSR brand. He also noted, "In September alone, we shipped over 380 robots. That is in a single month. That means we launched more robots in a single month than the prior quarters."

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Kashani confirmed the company is "on track to do it with robot #2000 planned to deploy in Miami in mid-December," reaffirming Serve's IPO promise to ship 2,000 robots by year-end and envisioning a long-term goal of "1 million robots deployed across cities globally."

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CFO Brian Read stated, "This quarter marked another step change for Serve, one defined not only by scale, but by strategic execution. We advanced in every meaningful area, expanding our fleet, strengthening our technology base and executing with greater precision across operations, engineering and finance." Read highlighted the integration of "2 key acquisitions that deepen our competitive moat, acquiring Vayu, a pioneer in urban robot navigation using large-scale AI models."

OUTLOOK

* Read reported, "We now expect to generate more than $2.5 million in revenue for the full year 2025. Our underlying recurring fleet revenues, which exclude nonrecurring software, is projected to grow 3x year-over-year from roughly $0.6 million in 2024 to roughly $2.1 million in 2025." He stated, "We remain confident in our ability to generate annualized revenue run rate of $60 million to $80 million. We intend to update 2026 full year guidance early next year. Initial indications show our expansion and operational plan positions Serve to deliver roughly 10x inflection in revenue during 2026."

FINANCIAL RESULTS

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Read reported "total revenue for Q3 2025 was $687,000, an increase of 210% versus last year and in line with our guidance provided for the quarter." Fleet revenue was $433,000, and branding revenue "jumped 120% sequentially over Q2." Software revenues were $254,000. Average daily operating hours per robot "increased another 12.5% sequentially from Q2," and robot intervention rates dropped, while "a consequential increase in the proportion of miles driven in autonomous mode" was observed.

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GAAP operating expenses for Q3 were $30.4 million, with non-GAAP operating expenses at $21.8 million. R&D investment was $13.4 million (GAAP) or $10.7 million (non-GAAP). Serve ended the quarter with $211 million in cash and marketable securities and executed a stock sale in October that generated approximately $100 million. CapEx for the quarter was $11 million. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $24.9 million.

Q&A

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Analyst asked about robot expansion plans for 2026. Kashani replied, "We aren't going to share the specific numbers right now...we are definitely going to push on growth, but we want to do it responsibly."

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On robot design and cost reduction, Kashani explained, "We've made it a lot more modular, easier to manufacture, a fewer custom assemblies. We've also really strengthened our supply chain to get better parts and at lower prices...our Gen 3 robots are 1/3 the cost of our Gen 2 robots."

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Regarding DoorDash partnership, Kashani said, "DoorDash obviously unlocks an enormous network of restaurants and consumers for us...a single robot being able to alternate between deliveries from each platform from DoorDash and Uber, it is really, really important that we are able to do that."

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Analyst asked about the impact of the Vayu acquisition. Read responded, "We're very early in this integration process...that integration will allow our robots to be faster and smarter, while maintaining the safety and reliability that we focus on daily."

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On city deployment learnings, Kashani shared, "Each city has its own distinct personality...the data in this new environment actually helps the model across the board for the entire platform."

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On software and data sales pipeline, Kashani noted, "The revenue pipeline for these other opportunities like the delivery platform, the software that's powering the robots as well as the data that's generated by the robot. It's been a really strong pipeline."

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Analyst asked about reaching the $60 million to $80 million run rate. Read stated, "The path to hitting $60 million to $80 million is underway...we are on track to deliver the 2,000 robots...we have that momentum through 2025 and accelerating into 2026 to approach that $60 million run rate target."

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

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Analysts asked detailed, future-focused questions about robot expansion, cost structure, partnerships, and monetization, indicating a positive and engaged tone.

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Management's tone was confident and ambitious during prepared remarks, with Kashani stating, "Our conviction is simple. We are entering the age where things will move at our will, but on their own." During Q&A, the tone remained disciplined, focusing on responsible growth and integration.

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Compared to the previous quarter, sentiment from both analysts and management was more positive and focused on strategic execution and scaling, with increased emphasis on operational milestones and future monetization.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

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Guidance for 2025 revenue increased to "more than $2.5 million" versus last quarter's projected range of $600,000 to $700,000 for Q3, with a clearer path toward the $60 million to $80 million annualized run rate.

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Strategic focus shifted toward leveraging partnerships (DoorDash, Uber, Jersey Mike's Subs) and integrating acquisitions (Vayu) to reinforce AI and operational efficiency. Fleet and city expansion outpaced last quarter's projections, with a tenfold increase in coverage year-over-year.

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Management confidence increased, with a focus on data-driven and capital-efficient scaling, while analysts' questions reflected greater interest in monetization and operational leverage.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

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Management acknowledged the need for responsible and disciplined scaling, emphasizing continued focus on safety, reliability, and integration of acquisitions.

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Cost structure and operating expenses increased due to rapid expansion, with ongoing investments in R&D and city launches.

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Analysts raised concerns about the pace and magnitude of robot deployment, cost reductions, integration with DoorDash and Uber, and monetization of software and data.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Serve Robotics emphasized the pivotal milestone of reaching 1,000 deployed robots, rapid expansion into new markets, and deepened partnerships with DoorDash and other national brands. The company reiterated its confidence in achieving over $2.5 million in 2025 revenue and a $60 million to $80 million annualized revenue run rate as it scales toward 2,000 robots by year-end and advances integration of AI and operational data through recent acquisitions. Management highlighted a disciplined, data-driven approach to growth, cost reduction, and operational efficiency, positioning Serve to lead the autonomous delivery market as it continues to expand its national footprint and recurring revenue streams.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/serv/earnings/transcripts]

MORE ON SERVE ROBOTICS INC.

* Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4842792-serve-robotics-inc-serv-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
* Serve Robotics: The Robotics Revolution Just Accelerated [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4829100-serve-robotics-the-robotics-revolution-just-accelerated]
* Serve Robotics: Scaling A New Market, But Profitability Remains Distant [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4827923-serve-robotics-scaling-a-new-market-but-profitability-remains-distant]
* Serve Robotics Inc. Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.40 misses by $0.14, revenue of $0.69M in-line [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4520846-serve-robotics-inc-non-gaap-eps-of-0_40-misses-by-0_14-revenue-of-0_69m-in-line]
* Serve Robotics Inc. Q3 2025 Earnings Preview [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4520085-serve-robotics-inc-q3-2025-earnings-preview]