Expect a disappointing jobs report Friday, healthcare job trends show warning signs – Aura Intelligence

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Evan Sohn, CEO of global workforce data and analytics company Aura Intelligence, expects tomorrow’s jobs report to disappoint based on concerning trends in job postings data.

“We saw a falloff in July. We saw a bigger fall off in August. So, we certainly expect there to be a disappointing [report],” Sohn said in an interview with CNBC.

Sohn’s company analyzes job posting data, which serves as a leading indicator for actual hiring that typically occurs the following month. This forward-looking perspective provides insights into employment trends before they appear in official statistics.

“We’re looking at the jobs that are being posted now, which would be filled next month,” Sohn explained.

In addition, he said the healthcare sector (NYSEARCA:XLV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLV]) is flashing particularly worrisome signals. Healthcare job postings are down 9% month-over-month and have declined 32% for the year. This represents a significant shift for what has traditionally been considered a recession-proof sector.

“This was a recession proof sector, and this is really, this is really scary, I think,” Sohn said. “When you have one out of every eight people in the U.S. hired in the healthcare sector, and it was recession proof, if it’s going to see a decline, that’s really going to take its toll on the overall job economy.”

The data also points to AI’s growing impact on workforce dynamics. While most sectors show declining job postings, computer software stands alone with positive growth – 2% year-over-year and 4% month-over-month for August. However, Sohn questions whether this represents genuine job creation or simply a shift toward developing AI that will ultimately replace other workers.

“AI is certainly going to take jobs from people that don’t know AI,” Sohn stated firmly. He referenced Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff’s recent comments about replacing laid-off employees with AI support services as evidence of this ongoing transition. “If you have AI that do a great job coding, I need fewer people coding. I can make fewer investments into coding because I have fewer people doing that.”

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