Reaction Roundup: Experts weigh in on record 911K revision to yearly jobs growth

[Pen and notebook written with text NON FARM PAYROLL]
Abu Hanifah

The state of the U.S. labor market is in the spotlight on Tuesday, after government data showed the largest revision on record to nonfarm employment in a year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the morning said U.S. nonfarm job growth in the year from March 2024 to March 2025 was 911K less than originally reported [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4493395-us-jobs-gains-weaker-by-911k-in-year-through-march-bls-revision-show]. That figure is much higher than the 700K expected and last year's 818K revision.

Note that this was just a preliminary revision by the Bureau, with the final benchmark revision scheduled to be released in February 2026.

The 911K revision not only supported the trend of recent cooling seen in the labor market but also suggested that job growth had already been moderating before that.

U.S. stocks showed little reaction to the nonfarm employment update, as market participants largely expected the big revision. Here are some exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark S&P 500 index (SP500 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SP500]): (NYSEARCA:SPY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPY]), (NYSEARCA:VOO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VOO]), (NYSEARCA:IVV [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IVV]), (NYSEARCA:RSP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/RSP]), (NYSEARCA:SSO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SSO]), (NYSEARCA:UPRO [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UPRO]), (NYSEARCA:SH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SH]), (NYSEARCA:SDS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SDS]), and (NYSEARCA:SPXU [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SPXU]).

See below for various reactions to the BLS' announcement:

MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR AT ALLIANZ AND FORMER CEO OF PIMCO:

"The just-released BLS revisions are noteworthy and are likely to increase pressure on both the BLS and the Federal Reserve ... The consequences of this larger-than-expected revision go beyond intensifying political attacks on the BLS.

They will reinforce the notion that the economy was weaker than reported and that the Federal Reserve faces an even larger risk of being behind the curve on its employment objective.

The revision sheds light on what was a significant difference between how the labor market was said to be performing and how people felt about it in surveys."

RYAN DETRICK, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT CARSON GROUP:

"911k jobs just vanished. Interesting to note that the past two times this was revised higher (2018 and 2022), stocks were lower."

PARKER ROSS, GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST AT ARCH CAPITAL GROUP:

"Ultimately, these revisions don't change my take on the labor market.

We're in a very low breakeven environment for job growth due to weak labor force growth.

Even with job growth bouncing back and forth between modestly positive and modestly negative territory, that's not going to be enough to meaningfully lift the unemployment rate."

MICHAEL R. STRAIN, DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC POLICY STUDIES AND SENIOR FELLOW AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE:

"The preliminary benchmark revision showed that the level of employment is 911,000 less than previously measured. This brings the average monthly employment gains from 147,000 jobs to 71,000 jobs.

This is well within the norm of revisions and will not shock economists or policymakers who understand the data. There is no political bias at work in the revision. This is a standard part of data production that long predates the Trump administration."

ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON, DIRECTOR AT STANFORD DIGITAL ECONOMY LAB:

"The big revisions in the jobs numbers have two important implications:

1. The economy is in the midst of a bigger disruption than most people realized.

2. Productivity is growing faster than most people thought. Productivity = GDP/hours worked. A smaller denominator means productivity growth may be ~0.5% faster than previously estimated."

JOSEPH BRUSUELAS, PRINCIPAL AND CHIEF ECONOMIST AT RSM US LLP:

"In an economy where 163.3M people are employed, a downward revision of 911,000 jobs over 12 months is not that large from a quantitative point of view. We will not know the monthly distribution of those downward revisions until February next year.

In my estimation, that revision contributed to an overestimation of new firms versus firms that have gone out of business, which is part of the seasonal residuality problem that continues to bedevil estimates that have not yet been properly adjusted following pandemic-era shocks."

MARC-ANDRÉ FONGERN, FORMER DEUTSCHE BANK AND GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENT BANKER:

"Ouch! Labor market in a more dire state than expected; dear Donald, even if you don't want to admit it, that's also your 'achievement.'"

MORE ON THE MARKETS

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* NFIB Optimism, Labor Revisions Feed Into Fed Policy Debate [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4821047-nfib-optimism-labor-revisions-feed-into-fed-policy-debate]
* August CPI May Confirm The Fed Has Given Up On 2% Inflation [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4821024-august-cpi-may-confirm-the-fed-has-given-up-on-2-percent-inflation]
* Wall Street recovers after large downward jobs revision, focus on Fed's cuts [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4493391-sp500-dow-jones-nasdaq-composite-stock-news-today-jobs]
* BlackRock highlights AI-driven productivity as catalyst for U.S. equities [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4493456-blackrock-highlights-ai-driven-productivity-as-catalyst-for-us-equities]