China's trade surplus shrinks in October as exports unexpectedly fall combined with a rise in imports

China's trade surplus narrowed significantly in October 2025, falling to USD 90.07 billion. This figure was smaller than market expectations of USD 95.6 billion and marked a decrease from the USD 95.72 billion recorded in the same month last year. It represents the country's smallest trade surplus since February, driven by an unexpected decline in exports combined with a rise in imports.

China's exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% year-over-year to an eight-month low of USD 305.4 billion. This result missed forecasts for a 3% rise and reversed the 8.3% gain seen in September.

This was the first decline in outbound shipments since February, amid tapering overseas orders, trade uncertainty, and the annual Golden Week holiday resulted in fewer working days, and a high comparison base from last year also contributed to the drop.
[China Flag and Economic Downturn With Stock Exchange Market Indicators in Red]
ronniechua

Specifically, shipments to the United States plunged by 25.0% YoY, continuing a seven-month streak of double-digit declines. Despite the October slump, China's year-to-date exports still showed a 5.3% YoY increase, totaling USD 3.08 trillion.

Conversely, China's imports rose by 1.0% YoY to USD 215.3 billion in October. While this marked the fifth consecutive month of growth, the pace was the weakest since May, missing the 3.2% market estimate and decelerating sharply from September's 7.4% surge.

This weak pace of import growth—the lowest in four months—highlights subdued domestic demand.

Investors have now turned their attention to the country’s inflation figures, due this weekend.

On Friday, the Shanghai Composite [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SHCOMP?source=section%3Asearch_bar%7Ccontent_type%3Aall%7Csection_asset%3Asearch-basic%7Csearch_item%3Ashcomp%7Crow_num%3A1%7CURL_first_level%3Anews%7Ctopic%3Asymbol] fell 0.1% toward 4,000 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.2% to 13,430 on Friday, with mainland stocks snapping a two-day decline, and the offshore yuan [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/USD:CNY#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Aglobal%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link] weakened to around 7.12 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains from the previous session as China’s unexpected export contraction weighed on an economy facing a year-end slowdown.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:FXI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FXI#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:KWEB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KWEB#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:CQQQ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CQQQ#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NASDAQ:MCHI [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MCHI#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:ASHR [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ASHR#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:YINN [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YINN#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSE:TDF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/TDF#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:CHIQ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CHIQ#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:GXC [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GXC#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:EWH [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/EWH#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:KBA [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KBA#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:YANG [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/YANG#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NASDAQ:CXSE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CXSE#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSE:CAF [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CAF#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:CWEB [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CWEB#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NASDAQ:PGJ [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/PGJ#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]), (NYSEARCA:KURE [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/KURE#source=url_first_level%3Amarket-news%7Csection%3Amarket-pulse%7Csection_asset%3Afull_story%7Cbutton%3Abody_link]).

Currency: (CNY:USD [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/CNY:USD])

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