Will Starlink SPAC or IPO in 2025?

Key Points

There are few private companies worth more than SpaceX, and many investors would like to own a piece of it. CEO Elon Musk has shown little interest in taking the rocket part of SpaceX public. However, Musk has been receptive to the idea of a spinoff and subsequent IPO of the Starlink satellite internet business. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›

For years, many investors have been waiting to get a piece of SpaceX, the massive space exploration company led by Tesla(NASDAQ: TSLA) CEO Elon Musk. According to most lists, SpaceX is the most valuable private company in the world. Unfortunately, Musk has given no indication that he is even remotely interested in taking SpaceX public.

However, there's another possibility that could be interesting. SpaceX is the parent company of the Starlink satellite internet service, and there is a strong possibility that Starlink could be spun off at some point and go public, either by the traditional IPO process or via special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.Image source: Getty Images.

What we know, and what we don't

One thing we know with near certainty is that SpaceX is unlikely to go public in its entirety -- at least not anytime soon. But SpaceX could spin off Starlink and take it public as a standalone business, and most reports and comments from insiders have indicated that it's the most likely route the company could take.

We also know that CEO Elon Musk has addressed this issue several times. In fact, one of the reasons that many investors think a Starlink IPO could be coming soon is that in 2022, Musk told SpaceX employees that a Starlink IPO wasn't likely until 2025 or later. He said that the business needed to achieve predictability and to be "in a smooth sailing situation" before an IPO, and with most reports indicating that Starlink is nicely profitable and generating billions in recurring revenue, there's an argument to be made that Musk's benchmarks have been met.

On the other hand, in a 2023 post on X, Musk told investors that Starlink wasn't having any problems raising money through private investors, and therefore it didn't make sense to go through the trouble of taking Starlink public.

More recently, Musk said at a 2025 conference that it's "possible that Starlink may go public at some point in the future," but he didn't seem to be in any rush to make it happen.

How much could Starlink be worth as a public company?

SpaceX, the parent of Starlink, is reportedly valued at about $400 billion in the private markets, based on a $1 billion share sale in July.

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When it comes to the standalone value of Starlink, which makes up the bulk of SpaceX's revenue according to most estimates, it's a little more difficult. Plus, the potential valuation depends on whom you ask. One analyst estimates that Starlink will reach $12.3 billion in revenue in 2025.

As far as how this might translate into a market value, estimates have varied widely. Most estimates have been in the $30 billion to $100 billion range, although billionaire investor Ron Baron said that Starlink will go public at a valuation in the $250 billion to $300 billion range, but that it won't happen until about 2027.

The bottom line

While a Starlink (or SpaceX) IPO isn't out of the question, I don't view it as likely to happen in 2025. For one thing, Starlink has become a cash machine for SpaceX and is instrumental in funding its development. And as we've seen with virtually every private funding round and stock sale, SpaceX has absolutely no difficulty in raising money through private investors. As mentioned, Musk indicated this in a 2023 post, and I'd argue that it's even easier for Starlink to raise money now.

If Starlink does go public, I'd say there's a higher probability of a traditional IPO than a SPAC. It would likely be the largest SPAC target of all time if it chooses that route, and while both processes have their pros and cons, the poor record of SPAC IPO performance might scare Musk away from this route.

To sum it up, I'm not holding my breath for a Starlink IPO in 2025, even though Musk has said that he'd eventually like to do one. It may come later, but I just don't see Musk in any particular rush to take the company public.

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Matt Frankel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Will Starlink SPAC or IPO in 2025? was originally published by The Motley Fool

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