Consumers trim their short-term inflation expectations in October: NY Fed

takasuu

U.S. consumers lowered their expectations for year-ahead inflation but maintained their outlook for the medium- and longer-term horizons, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's October Survey of Consumer Expectations released on Friday.

Median implied year-ahead inflation fell to 3.0% in October from 3.2% in the prior month. Meanwhile, three- and five-year inflation expectations both remained at 3.0%.

Consumers' labor market outlook was more mixed, with unemployment rate and job finding expectations worsening and job loss expectations slightly improving.

The mean probability that the U.S. jobless rate will be higher one year from now rose by 1.4 percentage points to 42.5%, marking the third straight rise in the series.

The mean perceived odds of losing one's job in the next 12 months fell by 0.9 percentage point to 14.0%, just below the series' 12-month trailing average of 14.2%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months fell by 1.9 percentage points to 18.8%, falling short of its 12-month trailing average of 19.0%.

Perceptions of credit access compared to a year earlier improved, with a smaller share of households reporting it was harder to get credit -- the lowest since February 2022 -- and a larger share of households saying it's easier to get credit -- the highest since October 2024.

The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose by 0.5 percentage point to 13.1%, vs. 13.3% 12-month trailing average.

The NY Fed survey was fielded during the Oct. 1-31 period.

MORE ON THE U.S. ECONOMY

* 'Money Printing' By The Fed: Fact Or Fiction? [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4840161-money-printing-by-fed-fact-or-fiction]
* Chart Of The Day: RBC's 'Dollar Doomsday' Scenario [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4840053-chart-of-day-rbc-capital-markets-dollar-doomsday-scenario]
* The Federal Reserve's AI Challenge [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4839549-federal-reserve-ai-challenge]
* Treasury yields fall as U.S. equity selloff picks up steam [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4517454-treasury-yields-fall-as-us-equity-selloff-picks-up-steam]
* U.S. Treasury lowers borrowing guidance for last quarter of CY2025 by $21B [https://seekingalpha.com/news/4513509-us-treasury-lowers-borrowing-guidance-for-last-quarter-of-cy2025-by-21b]