Is Bilibili’s Recent Pullback a Chance After Digital Media Partnerships?

Curious if Bilibili is actually a bargain right now? You are not alone. Plenty of investors want to get a clearer read on the stock's true value. After a stellar 62.5% gain year-to-date and a 23.2% rise over the last twelve months, Bilibili has pulled back 8.0% this past week. This has kept everyone guessing about what is next. Recent headlines have centered on Bilibili's deepening partnerships in the Chinese digital media space and efforts to diversify its revenue streams. These moves have caught the market's attention and fueled some of the volatility seen in the share price. Bilibili currently scores 2 out of 6 on our undervaluation checklist. While some approaches suggest value, it pays to look deeper. Next, we will break down what those scores really mean and explore which valuation methods give the clearest picture. The best insight might just be in the final section.

Bilibili scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Bilibili Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis estimates a company's value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today's value. This approach helps investors look beyond short-term volatility and focus on what the business could generate for shareholders over time.

For Bilibili, the model uses the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity method, which estimates cash flows in the near term based on analyst projections and then extends those forecasts further into the future with calculated growth rates. Bilibili's latest trailing twelve-month Free Cash Flow stands at CN¥4.66 billion. Analysts expect this to increase steadily, reaching as high as CN¥8.19 billion by 2035 according to Simply Wall St's extrapolated data. For example, the projected Free Cash Flow for the year ending 2028 is CN¥5.71 billion.

After discounting these future cash flows to their present value, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of $33.02 per share. With Bilibili currently trading about 15.7% below this estimate, the stock appears undervalued based on the underlying cash flow fundamentals.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bilibili is undervalued by 15.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 876 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.BILI Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Bilibili.

Approach 2: Bilibili Price vs Sales

The Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio is a widely used valuation tool for companies like Bilibili that are still building scale and have yet to reach consistent profitability. This multiple is especially useful for growth-stage digital media platforms because it highlights how much investors are paying for every dollar of sales, regardless of reported earnings, which can be volatile or negative as companies invest in expansion.

Story Continues

Growth prospects, business risks, and overall industry trends all influence what counts as a “normal” or “fair” PS ratio. Higher-growth companies often justify a premium, while riskier or slower-growing businesses tend to trade at discounts to the market or industry average.

Bilibili currently trades at a PS ratio of 2.79x. For context, the Interactive Media and Services industry averages 1.42x, while similar peers are valued at 3.07x. On first glance, Bilibili appears slightly below the peer average but above the broader industry norm.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” model weighs not just external benchmarks but also Bilibili’s unique factors, including its growth rates, profit margins, business risks, and market cap, to arrive at a PS ratio of 1.96x. This tailored approach provides a clearer and more relevant benchmark than a simple industry or peer comparison.

With Bilibili’s current PS ratio of 2.79x compared to a Fair Ratio of 1.96x, the stock appears to be overvalued on this metric.

Result: OVERVALUEDNasdaqGS:BILI PS Ratio as at Nov 2025

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1404 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bilibili Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your own story about a company, connecting your unique perspective or thesis to the numbers you believe in, such as your estimates for Bilibili’s future revenue, profit margins, and ultimately what you think the shares are really worth.

Narratives make fundamental analysis not just easier, but actionable. They link your interpretation of the business (the story) to a financial forecast, and then straight to a fair value you can personally defend. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, you can use Narratives, alongside millions of other investors, to lay out your assumptions transparently and see how they compare with others.

By tracking Fair Value versus the current Price based on your Narrative, you get a live signal for when Bilibili is under- or overvalued, helping you decide whether to buy, sell, or wait. Best of all, Narratives update automatically with new events, earnings, or news, so your view always stays relevant.

For instance, one investor’s Narrative for Bilibili might project strong game launches and higher profit margins, leading to a Fair Value of $37.73. Another investor, concerned about competition and regulatory risk, might set their Fair Value closer to $22.14.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bilibili? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!NasdaqGS:BILI Community Fair Values as at Nov 2025

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include BILI.

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