JPMorgan's top short ideas in the technology sector going into Q4

[Crypto currency, Virtual money, Bitcoin chart going up. Longing and shorting, buying and selling with smartphone.]
Agita Zeltkovska

As October kicks off and market participants enter the fourth quarter of 2025, JPMorgan surveyed its top-ranked U.S. equity analysts and picked out what it called "their most compelling structural and tactical short ideas" across sectors.

Looking at the technology sector (NYSEARCA:XLK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLK]), JPMorgan identified four top short ideas: Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MBLY]), Insperity (NYSE:NSP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NSP]), Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SWKS]), and Qualys (NASDAQ:QLYS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QLYS]).

The S&P 500 technology sector (NYSEARCA:XLK [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/XLK]) has easily been the top-performing one in 2025, advancing +22.86% YTD. Gains have been driven by the artificial intelligence trade, though concerns of an AI bubble have also gathered steam.

See below JPMorgan's rationale behind its four top tech short ideas and their rating. Also given are the stocks' YTD performance and their Seeking Alpha Quant rating:

MOBILEYE GLOBAL (NASDAQ:MBLY [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MBLY])

Stock -24.2% YTD; JPMorgan's rating: Underweight; Quant rating: Hold, 3.20 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MBLY/ratings/quant-ratings].

Rationale: We expect modest revenue growth in the mid-term which remains broadly unsupportive of its premium valuation, and challenges in the Auto industry limit visibility into future top-line acceleration.

INSPERITY (NYSE:NSP [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NSP])

Stock -37.5% YTD; JPMorgan's rating: Underweight; Quant rating: Strong Sell, 1.22 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NSP/ratings/quant-ratings].

Rationale: It faces challenge of soft SMB hiring environment while also implementing higher-than-normal insurance repricing during key Fall renewals season; trades at 4-turn NTM P/E premium to peer TNET (UW-rated), which grows slower but has already completed 1yr+ of elevated insurance re-pricing.

SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS (NASDAQ:SWKS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SWKS])

Stock -16.2% YTD; JPMorgan's rating: Neutral; Quant rating: Hold, 3.29 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/SWKS/ratings/quant-ratings].

Rationale: The stock is currently trading well above our price target, which we believe reflects investor complacency and heightened confidence in overall smartphone demand. Although near-term performance may improve slightly, we view the stock as a relative underperformer compared to the broader semiconductor group due to a lack of upside catalysts. We maintain a Neutral rating, as the team has potential content gain opportunities in the next-generation iPhone (iPhone 18) as it seeks to regain lost market share.

QUALYS (NASDAQ:QLYS [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QLYS])

Stock -9% YTD; JPMorgan's rating: Underweight; Quant rating: Hold, 3.19 [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/QLYS/ratings/quant-ratings].

Rationale: Elevated S&M spending has not translated into higher growth, but is leading to a setup of underwhelming revenue growth with margin contraction.

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