Acadia signals 8–12% same-store NOI growth for 2026 while doubling acquisitions pipeline

Earnings Call Insights: Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) Q3 2025

MANAGEMENT VIEW

* Kenneth Bernstein, President and CEO, opened by highlighting "tenant performance and tenant demand at our properties, especially the street retail component, is continuing, and if anything, this positive momentum is accelerating." He stated the company is "probably at an inflection point for our portfolio's operating performance" and projects both total NOI growth and same-store growth to accelerate, aiming to stay "well above our long-term goal of 5% growth."
* Bernstein indicated the company realized a 45% lease spread in SoHo and a 70% mark-to-market on Bleecker Street, with nearly $7 million from the SNO Pipeline opened and an additional $4 million added into the SNO Pipeline.
* The CEO pointed to major redevelopment projects in San Francisco, with T&T Supermarkets opening in late 2026, a new LA Fitness lease, and a combined 100,000 square feet of additional space, which "are slated to add roughly 5% to our REIT NOI."
* Bernstein reported, "based on the current status of our pipeline, we are now confident that our 2025 investment activity will match the strength of 2024," and the company expects to continue accretive investment despite increased cost of capital.
* Alexander Levine, SVP of Leasing & Development, reported "another successful and productive quarter of leasing," executing $3.7 million in ABR and bringing the year-to-date total to $11.4 million. He noted "overall GAAP spreads for new and renewal leases on our streets were 32%."
* Levine also shared strong sales growth from tenants: "In SoHO, sales are up 15%; on Bleecker Street, north of 30%; and on the Gold Coast of Chicago...sales are up over 40%."
* Reginald Livingston, EVP & Chief Investment Officer, announced year-to-date acquisition volume of over $480 million, with a goal to double that by year-end. "These deals are poised to deliver the earnings and NAV accretion consistent with our goals."
* John Gottfried, EVP & CFO, stated, "our differentiated street retail business hit an inflection point this quarter, delivering same-store growth of 13%," and highlighted balance sheet flexibility with debt-to-EBITDA at 5x and $800 million in available liquidity. He added, "we sequentially increased our quarterly FFO by $0.01, to $0.29 as compared to the $0.28 we reported last quarter."

OUTLOOK

* Gottfried stated, "we are projecting total same-store growth inclusive of redevelopments between 8% to 12% and between 5% to 9% same-store growth, excluding redevelopments, with our street and urban portfolio projected to contribute growth in excess of 10%."
* He explained the company is "well on our way of hitting our targets," projecting $12 million to $14 million of incremental NOI over 2025 results, or roughly $0.09 a share of FFO at current share count.
* Guidance for 2026 will shift to a simplified "FFO as adjusted" metric, which will exclude investment management gains and non-comparable items.

FINANCIAL RESULTS

* Same-store NOI for Q3 was reported at 8.2%, with street retail portfolio delivering 13% growth for the quarter.
* Quarterly FFO increased to $0.29 from $0.28 in the previous quarter.
* The company signed $3.7 million in new leases, resulting in an $11.9 million signed not yet open pipeline as of September 30.
* Occupancy increased by 140 basis points, with street and urban occupancy up 280 basis points to 89.5%.
* The company raised $212 million of equity at just under $20 a share to fund acquisitions and the Henderson Redevelopment project in Dallas.

Q&A

* Floris Van Dijkum, Ladenburg Thalmann: Asked about the pipeline of acquisitions and yield expectations. Livingston responded, "we feel really confident that we're finding the right opportunities in street retail that may take a 5% cash yield into the mid-6s, which is our target for GAAP yield."
* Linda Tsai, Jefferies: Inquired about factors driving the 5–9% same-store growth projection for 2026. Gottfried explained the range is "how quickly do we get some of those spaces leased and open, gets us to the 9%."
* Craig Mailman, Citi: Asked about the $500 million acquisitions pipeline. Livingston confirmed this is a "gross number that we could achieve in the fourth quarter."
* Andrew Reale, BofA Securities: Asked about institutional partner demand for the investment management platform. Livingston replied, "We're seeing broad demand. There's a lot of institutional investor demand."
* Michael Mueller, JPMorgan: Sought details on rent ranges for recent street openings. Levine stated, "Ground on Armitage is, let's call it, between $120 to $130 a square foot... On Walton Street, ground floor space at this point is leasing for, call it, $350 to $400 a square foot."
* Paulina Rojas-Schmidt, Green Street: Asked about the disconnect between portfolio performance and stock price. Bernstein replied, "We are doing as good a job as we can is providing additional clarity... sooner or later, the market follows."

SENTIMENT ANALYSIS

* Analysts maintained a constructive to slightly positive tone, pressing for clarity on growth projections, funding, and accretion but expressing interest in the company's strong leasing and acquisition pipeline.
* Management maintained a confident and optimistic tone in prepared remarks, frequently using language such as "we are confident" and "we feel really good," while also acknowledging frustration with the stock's performance but emphasizing operational execution.
* Compared to the previous quarter, both analysts and management retained a similar tone, with management showing increased confidence about hitting higher growth targets and analysts continuing to probe for details on execution and pipeline realization.

QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER COMPARISON

* Guidance for same-store NOI growth increased from a consistent 5–6% to a projected range of 8–12% for 2026, signaling stronger internal growth expectations.
* The acquisitions pipeline grew from $420 million in assets acquired year-to-date in Q2 to over $480 million in Q3, with the goal to double by year-end.
* Management continued to simplify reporting, announcing a new "FFO as adjusted" metric for 2026, compared to prior quarters’ more complex guidance structure.
* Leasing performance and spreads have accelerated, and occupancy metrics improved more sharply compared to the previous quarter.
* Analyst focus remained on growth durability, pipeline execution, and funding, while management's confidence in sustaining and accelerating growth became more pronounced.

RISKS AND CONCERNS

* Management referenced continued economic uncertainty and noise around the broader economy, but emphasized resilience in tenant demand and performance.
* Short-term dilution from City Point loan conversions is expected, but management views this as setting up for future NOI and earnings growth.
* Discussion around the stock price not reflecting underlying fundamentals was addressed, with management stressing focus on execution rather than market movements.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Acadia Realty Trust management signaled that the third quarter marked an inflection point, with accelerating leasing activity, a robust acquisitions pipeline, and a significant uplift in projected same-store NOI growth for 2026. The company sees continued strong demand for its street retail assets, maintains balance sheet flexibility, and is moving to a simpler, more transparent FFO reporting metric, all while targeting internal and external growth that is expected to drive earnings in the coming years.

Read the full Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/akr/earnings/transcripts]

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* Acadia Realty Trust (AKR) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4834891-acadia-realty-trust-akr-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript]
* Acadia Realty: Urban Retail Powerhouse Trading At A Discount [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4818467-acadia-realty-urban-retail-powerhouse-trading-at-a-discount]
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* Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating on Acadia Realty Trust [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AKR/ratings/quant-ratings]