Michael Saylor's Strategy Could Be Snubbed Out of S&P 500 Again

Michael Saylor (in image) and his Bitcoin behemoth to make the S&P 500? | Credit: Joe Raedle via Getty Images.

Key Takeaways

Strategy failed to enter the S&P 500 in Sept. 2025, losing out to Robinhood and others. Analysts predict MSTR has a 70% chance of being included in the S&P 500 in December this year. S&P has given MSTR a ‘B-‘ credit rating, citing BTC exposure, low USD liquidity, and a narrow business model as problem areas.

A strong Q3 result from Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin (BTC) behemoth, Strategy, is sparking debate around whether the firm’s MSTR stock will be included in the S&P 500 before the end of 2025.

According to a recent report, there’s a 70% chance it’ll be included despite being overlooked in September. However, the S&P’s recent rating of Strategy suggests it won’t make the mark this year.

Strategy Q3

Strategy is expected to release its Q3 2025 earnings report tomorrow, and it’s expected to be a positive report with a projected $3.8 billion in earnings, according to 10x Research.

Based on this, they anticipate the release will “reignite speculation” about its inclusion in the December 5 S&P 500 index shuffle. If all goes well, 10x posits the firm has a 70% chance of being included.

Every quarter, the $58 trillion market cap S&P 500 reshuffles its index.

In September, it was due for another, and despite meeting the technical requirements. This includes a market cap of over $18 billion, high liquidity, and sufficient public float.

Regardless, Strategy was snubbed from the index.

RobinHood, AppLovin, and Emcor were selected instead for the quarterly rebalance. Some observers asserted that this was due to the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee’s discomfort with Strategy’s business model.

Or at least, the perception of it essentially being a Bitcoin fund.

B Minus

This September decision initially hurt Strategy’s MSTR stock, which declined a few percentage points, but this didn’t stop Strategy from hoovering up BTC.

It owned some 597,000 BTC in September, and currently holds 640,808 BTC worth $72.3 billion.

Unfortunately, things aren’t looking great this time around as the S&P recently slapped a ‘B-‘ credit rating on to Strategy Inc., citing BTC exposure, slim business model, and low USD liquidity as key problem areas.

Strategy’s Bitcoin business is a genius plan, though a double-edged sword. A decline in BTC is a decline in the firm’s portfolio value, which could affect the firm’s ability to raise capital.

It’s got billions in unrealized gains and tax benefits and shares, at points, outperforming BTC bulls. But if BTC drops enough, it can impair capital access, heighten leverage risks, and so on.

Story Continues

MSTR has shed 35% in value since its July 2025 high of $434, and this latest review from the S&P has plunged it a couple of percentage points lower in the past 24 hours.

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